The week started out slowly for the markets, as participants awaited Janet Yellen’s economic speech on Tuesday. In recent days, many of the Fed governors were out with hawkish statements, setting the intention that interest rates should rise this year. Yellen, however, pushed back hard with a very cautionary tone. Her focus was on a deteriorating Chinese economy, an oil glut and weak US inflation, suggesting that interest rates would increase at a very gradual pace. Hear that as not in the near future, or until the data deems the Fed should act. Doesn’t that mean they are always behind the curve? Anyway, I take that as she is using U.S. interest rate policy to affect the world economies. Someone tell me how that’s in her job description.
When Yellen’s comments hit the airways, the dollar broke sharply, as lower US interest rates means money will be flowing away from US denominated financial assets. With some 23 countries with negative interest rates, there is not anywhere to go except into commodities. That gave oil and gold a lift, which soon proved to be temporary. Oil ended the week down about $2.80, that’s down over $5.00 from recent highs. Gold, which popped over $20 on the Yellen speech, gave back most of that also. Silver fared much worse. Our analysis suggests oil and gold are in intermediate corrections with several more weeks to go. Watch our segment, FutureSpeak, each Wednesday for that analysis.
The bond market has continued to edge upward, making that three good weeks in a row, (interest rates moving downward) as traders readjust their expectations of higher rates this year. Excuse me while I say, that’s the Fed again; creating total confusion in the markets.
Where to now for the markets? To hear more commentary, many charts, viewer emails and Slim’s Short-term view, be sure to watch the video, “Market Week”
Watch the show at askslim.com
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