SIR Daily Snapshot_ v.3.81_8-24-20

We have added our “Reversal Scout” HMA momentum indicator to our SIR Daily Snapshot Intraday Grid. You will be able to view this indicator live on our stream! This indicator is designed to provide an indication of the likely intraday directional bias as well as potential intraday turning points as its momentum condition shifts from positive to negative and vice versa. A positive momentum condition is reflected when the indicator is green and a negative momentum condition is reflected when the indicator is purple.

It is a fundamental truth that the inherent nature of the markets always offers the possibility that anything can happen. Risk is always present for upside and downside surprises. As traders, we should be cognizant of this fact and structure our trade planning and risk management accordingly – whether the technical evidence is clearly bullish, bearish or neutral with mixed signals. At askSlim we are bull/bear agnostic. The market messages drive our technical outlook. The analysis contained in the SIR products are developed as much as possible from a proprietary blend of objectively engineered trend, momentum and cycle studies and we look for alignment at multiple timeframes so we can provide the highest probability of directional bias along with projected key support and resistance levels. We will always provide upside and downside viewpoints as well.

S-T Directional Bias and Technical Briefing (few days to few weeks outlook): The SPX closed up today about 34 points to 3431.28. The sum of the technical evidence as of the market close on 8/24/20 suggests the current short-term technical condition is slightly bullish. The current bullish technical evidence continues to keep the door open to new highs in the short-term, however, a close below 3365 (warning) and a violation below 3326 (confirmation) would be negative technical signals and suggest a short-term peak is in place and a corrective phase is likely underway. 

Upside Overview: Another new all-time high was printed today at 3432.09. In another show of strength the SPX pushed above the top-end of a short-term fib extension/resistance zone (3406-3414) that it had been challenging for the past 10 days. The SPX is now confronting another important short-term fib extension/resistance zone from 3420-3446. We had identified this as a likely area the next short-term pullback or corrective period could start from. Because of the continued strength in the SPX, it is necessary to position a KEY short-term fib extension/resistance zone above 3446. If 3446 doesn’t contain the current advance we are watching 3462-3503 to likely do so.  

Downside Overview:  In a swift and brief pullback last week SPX found buyers in an indicated minor support zone from 3361-3340. The SPX has a new key minor support zone from 3394-3367. Below 3367 the SPX has a thick short-term support zone from 3348-3289, which is also a projected likely target zone during next short-term pullback (1-3 weeks outlook). Below 3289 the SPX has a key short-term support zone that runs from  and 3290-3249. Looking back at the corrective weekly cycles phases over the past three years, excluding the recent “crash”, the declining phases brought declines of 70-100 points on the low-end and 240-600 points on the high-end. This previous data in combination with other retracement tools would suggest the anticipated intermediate corrective phase (3-8 weeks outlook), points to a test of 3296-3233. A more aggressive decline would likely test 3166-3067.

Cycle Timing Overview:  The SPX is inside the window of risk where an intermediate corrective phase has been due to start. For the weekly cycle timing, we have been looking at a cycle low due 8/20/20-9/9/20. The next daily cycle low is projected due between 9/6-9/12/20. The “nesting” of cycle lows projected within similar time frames (early to mid September) increases the magnitude of the downside risk during this time period. 

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2-HR Chart with Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator, HMA (Reversal “Scout”) and Key S-T Support & Resistance Zones 

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Slim’s Annotated SPX Daily Chart with additional Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator and Hull Moving Average (“Reversal Scout”)

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2-HR Chart with Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator, HMA (Reversal “Scout”) and Key S-T Support & Resistance Zones

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Slim’s Annotated NDX Daily Chart with additional Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator and Hull Moving Average (“Reversal Scout”)

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2-HR Chart with Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator, HMA (Reversal “Scout”) and Key S-T Support & Resistance Zones

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Slim’s Annotated RUT Daily Chart with additional Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator and Hull Moving Average (“Reversal Scout”)

*askSlim Trend & Momentum Tracker

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2hr Intraday Area Chart “Comparison” with SLIM Ribbon Momentum Indicator & MCI

• Slim Ribbon Momentum Key
  Green = Positive Momentum
  Red = Negative Momentum 
  Purple = Neutral Momentum
• Hull Moving Average (HMA) Key
  Green = Positive Condition
  Purple = Negative Condition
  

 

• New to Slim’s Charts? Click the following link to learn more. Slim’s Chart Training

 

• Click on the following link to learn more about Slim’s Trend Momentum Tracking Tool

 

• Our use of “Near-Term” refers to the use of 2hr intraday charts and other trend analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last 5-7 trading days. Our use of “Short-Term” refers to the use of primarily daily charts and other trend analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last few to several weeks. Our use of “Intermediate-Term” refers to the use of primarily weekly charts and other trend analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last several weeks to several months. Our use of “Long-Term” refers to the use of primarily monthly charts and other trend analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last several months to several years.