Hello, askSlim members! Welcome to the askSlim Stock Index Report (SIR) Daily Snapshot. Today’s post includes a detailed short-term technical snapshot of the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and Russell 2000 (RUT). Feel free to share your comments and feedback below.  Enjoy!

Important Notes:

Reversal Scout:


The askSlim “Reversal Scout” momentum indicator is designed to provide an indication of the likely directional bias as well as potential turning points as its momentum condition shifts from positive to negative and vice versa. A positive momentum condition is reflected when the indicator is green and a negative momentum condition is reflected when the indicator is purple.

PRO TIP & Overview:

It is a fundamental truth that the inherent nature of the markets always offers the possibility that anything can happen. Risk is always present for upside and downside surprises. As traders, we should be cognizant of this fact and structure our trade planning and risk management accordingly – whether the technical evidence is clearly bullish, bearish or neutral with mixed signals. At askSlim we are bull/bear agnostic. The market messages drive our technical outlook. The information contained in the SIR Daily Snapshot is the result of a proprietary blend of trend, momentum, swing high/swing low techniques and cycle analysis. We look for alignment at multiple timeframes in the technical evidence to be able to provide the highest probability of the overall trend/pattern structure, short-term directional bias, key support & resistance levels as well as upside and downside price projections.  A video overview of the Daily Snapshot is available here. https://www.loom.com/share/1cc008ef6bca42a5bcdd81bde0a3bed4

 

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 – (SPX, NDX, RUT)
Index Technical Summaries


S-T Directional Bias and Technical Briefings (few days to few weeks outlook): 

1) In an extremely volatile session the SPX closed up about 12 points at 3966.85. The sum of the technical evidence as of the market close suggests the SPX current short-term directional bias remains bearish. The SPX completed the prior Daily Cycle on 8/9/22 with a positive cycle configuration and an extremely “swamped” shallow pullback – only reaching the first band of the Slim Ribbon on the daily chart. However, the strong selling that has occurred after the 8/16/22 swing high at 4325 violated the prior daily cycle low at 4112.09 last Friday, 8/26, shifting the cycle structure negative and signaling the likelihood of a left hand translation – meaning the odds of a cycle peak already occurring at 4325 were greatly increased leaving a lot of time for additional downside risk – which we have seen. 2) The SPX continues to be very extended on the downside as the heavy selling continues. Today it tested and bounced in a previously indicated area of support – a fib confluence from 3918-3867– see 2hr chart. 3) The SPX has a lot of work to do on the upside again to begin to repair the recent technical damage. Currently a close above 4166 and push above 4236 would likely be needed to open the door to new recovery highs. On the downside, a close below 3900 (came close today) will inflict broader technical damage to the intermediate pattern structure and suggest a retest of the June lows is likely underway. 4) For the SPX to begin to repair and neutralize the technical damage from the longer-term negative pattern structure from the January 2022 peak, the SPX would need to close above the major 61.8% fib near 4367. This price occurrence would reduce the odds of new bear market lows before the end of the year and open the door to a challenge of the prior ATH at 4818.62. 5) The larger downside risk indicated by the weekly and daily cycle low timing is projected for early September to early October – see “harmonic” family of projected syncing weekly/daily cycle troughs. As we continue to experience, the SPX is in a heightened state of volatility where extreme moves in both directions can and will occur. See the charts for the indicated support and resistance levels.

1)  In an extremely volatile session the NDX closed up about 3 points at 12,274.62. The sum of the technical evidence as of the market close suggests the NDX current short-term directional bias remains bearish. The NDX completed the prior Daily Cycle on 8/9/22 with a positive cycle configuration and an extremely “swamped” shallow pullback – only reaching in-between the first and second bands of the Slim Ribbon on the daily chart.  However, the strong selling that has occurred after the 8/16/22 swing high at 13,720 violated the prior daily cycle low at 12,945 last Friday, 8/26 shifting the cycle structure negative and signaling the likelihood of a left hand translation – meaning the odds of a cycle peak already occurring at 13,720 were greatly increased leaving a lot of time for additional downside risk – which we have seen. 2) The NDX continues to be very extended on the downside as the heavy selling continues. Today it tested and bounced in a previously indicated area of support – a fib confluence from 12,126-11,849 – see 2hr chart. 3) The NDX has a lot of work to do on the upside again to begin to repair the recent technical damage. On the upside, currently a close above 13,073 and a push above 13,371 would be needed repair the recent technical damage and open the door to new recovery highs. On the downside, a close below 12,063 (came close today) will inflict broader technical damage to the intermediate pattern structure and suggest a retest of the June lows is likely underway. 4) The larger downside risk indicated by the weekly and daily cycle low timing is projected for early September to early October – see “harmonic” family of projected syncing weekly/daily cycle troughs. For the NDX to begin to repair and neutralize the technical damage from the longer-term negative pattern structure from the January 2022 peak, the NDX would need to close above the major 61.8% fib near 14,577. This occurrence would reduce the odds of new bear market lows by the end of the year and open the door to a challenge of the prior ATH at 16,767.86. As we continue to experience, the NDX is in a heightened state of volatility where extreme moves in both directions can and will occur. See the charts for the indicated support and resistance levels. 

1)  In an extremely volatile session the RUT closed down about 11 points at 1822.82. The sum of the technical evidence as of the market close suggests the current short-term directional bias remains slightly bearish. The overall analysis is similar at this time. The RUT completed the recent Daily Cycle on 8/9/22 with a positive cycle configuration and an extremely “swamped” shallow pullback – only nearing the first band of the Slim Ribbon on the daily chart. However, the strong selling that occurred after the 8/16/22 swing high at 2030 violated the prior daily cycle low at 1904 last Friday, 8/26 shifting the cycle structure negative and signaling the likelihood of a left hand translation – meaning the odds of a cycle peak already occurring at 2030 were greatly increased leaving a lot of time for additional downside risk – which we have seen.  2) The RUT continues to be very extended on the downside. The NDX continues to be very extended on the downside as the heavy selling continues. Today it tested and bounced in a previously indicated area of support a fib confluence from 1812-1790 – see 2hr chart. On the upside a close above 1961 and a push above 1993 would be needed repair the recent technical damage and open the door to new recovery highs. On the downside, a close below 1787 will inflict broader technical damage to the intermediate pattern structure and suggest a retest of the June lows is likely underway.  The larger downside risk indicated by the weekly and daily cycle low timing is projected for early September to early October – see “harmonic” family of projected syncing weekly/daily cycle troughs. 4) For the RUT to begin to repair and neutralize the technical damage from the longer-term negative pattern structure from the January 2022 peak, the RUT would need to close above the major 61.8% fib near 2147. This occurrence would reduce the odds of new bear market lows and open the door to a challenge of the prior ATH at 2458.86. See the charts for the indicated support and resistance levels.  


 

S&P 500 – (SPX)
askSlim Charts


2-HR Chart with Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator, Reversal Scout and Key S-T Support & Resistance Zones

 



Slim’s Annotated SPX Daily Chart with additional Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator and Reversal Scout

Slim’s Annotated SPX Weekly Chart with “Reversal Scout”

SPX Short-Term Outlook (1-3 Weeks)

Short-Term Upside Price Projection:          4006-4089

Short-Term Downside Price Projection:    projection satisfied – more market data needed

 

askSlim
Trend & Momentum Technical Evidence
As of August 31, 2022 @ 3 PM CST
SPX (SPY) – S&P 500 (Short-Term)
Daily Charts
(Near-Term)
Intraday Charts
PATTERN STRUCTURE/
TREND CONDITION

last change 8/22/22 

last change 8/26/22
SLIM RIBBON
MOMENTUM CONDITION

last change 8/31/22 –

daily chart


last change 8/22/22
REVERSAL “SCOUT”
last change 8/23/22

last change 8/26/22


Upside Overview:
The SPX reached the lower middle of the projection zone indicated on 8/19/22.  The current technicals suggest an upside price projection over the next 1-3 weeks of 4113-4172 (indicated 8/29/22) – updated 9/1/22 to 4006-4089. A close below 3900 first would require a reevaluation of the upside projections.

 

Downside Overview: The SPX reached the price projection previously indicated on 8/28/22.  Additional price action is needed before the next downside projections can be established.

SPX Intermediate-Term Outlook (1-2 Months)


Intermediate-Term Upside Price Projection:                  4089-4140
Intermediate-Term Downside Price Projection:            4030-3805

askSlim
Trend & Momentum Technical Evidence
As of August 31, 2022 @ 3 PM CST
SPX (SPY) – S&P 500 (I-T)
Weekly Charts
(Short-Term)
Daily Charts
PATTERN STRUCTURE/TREND CONDITION
last change 8/12/22 

last change 8/22/22  

REVERSAL “SCOUT” last change 7/19/22

last change 8/23/22

Upside Overview:  The SPX did not reach the price projection zone previously indicated on 8/20/22. The current technicals suggest an upside price projection over the next 1-2 months of 4115-4187 (indicated 8/30/22) – updated 9/1/22 to 4089-4140. A violation below 3906 first would require a reevaluation of the upside projections – updated 9/1/22 .

 

Downside Overview: The SPX has reached deep into price projections previously indicated on 8/13/22.  The current technicals suggest a downside price projection over the next 1-2 months of 4030-3805 (indicated 8/13/22) – entered deep into the projection zone on 9/1/30. A push above 4237 first would require a reevaluation of the downside projections.

SPX Longer-Term Outlook (3-6 Months)

Longer-Term Upside Price Projection:                      4358-4380
Longer-Term Downside Price Projection:                3900-3780

askSlim
Trend & Momentum Technical Evidence
As of August 31, 2022 @ 3 PM CST
SPX (SPY) – S&P 500 (L-T)
Monthly Charts
(I-T)
Weekly Charts
PATTERN STRUCTURE/
TREND CONDITION

last change 8/15/22

last change
8/12/22 
MOMENTUM CONDITION

last change 5/6/22

last change 7/19/22

Upside Overview: The SPX reached the price projections previously indicated on 8/1/22.  An advance in the longer-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the SPX to 4358-4380 (indicated 8/20/22).  A violation below 3910 first would require reevaluation of the upside projections – updated. 

Downside Overview: The SPX has entered price projection previously indicated on 6/13/22. The current technicals suggest a downside price projection over the next 3-6 months of 3900-3780 (indicated 8/16/22) – note entered deep into the price projection zone the week of 6/13/22. A close above 4367 first would require a reevaluation of the downside projections.



NASDAQ 100 – (NDX)
askSlim Charts

 

2-HR Chart with Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator, Reversal Scout and Key S-T Support & Resistance Zones

 


Slim’s Annotated NDX Daily Chart with additional Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator and Reversal Scout

 

Slim’s Annotated NDX Weekly Chart with “Reversal Scout”

NDX Short-Term Outlook (1-3 Weeks)

Short-Term Upside Price Projection:            12,510-12,728

Short-Term Downside Price Projection:      projection satisfied – more market data needed

askSlim
Trend & Momentum Technical Evidence
As of August 31
, 2022 @ 3 PM CST
NDX (QQQ) – Nasdaq 100 (Short-Term)
Daily Charts
(Near-Term)
Intraday Charts
PATTERN STRUCTURE/
TREND CONDITION

last change 8/22/22

last change 8/26/22
Slim Ribbon
MOMENTUM CONDITION

last change 8/30/22 –
daily chart

last change 8/19/22 – 2hr chart

REVERSAL “SCOUT”
last change 8/22/22 – daily chart

last change 8/26/22 – 2hr chart


Upside Overview:  The NDX did not reach the price projections previously indicated on 8/28/22. The current technicals suggest an upside price projection over the next 1-3 weeks of 12,510-12,728 (indicated 9/1/22). A violation below 11,850 first would require a reevaluation of the upside projections. 

Downside Overview:  The NDX entered the projection zone previously indicated on 8/29/22. Additional price action is needed before the next downside projections can be established.

NDX Intermediate-Term Outlook (1-2 Months)


NDX INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK (1-2 MONTHS)

Intermediate-Term Upside Price Projection:                   12,575-12,925
Intermediate-Term Downside Price Projection:              12,432-12,100

 

askSlim
Trend & Momentum Technical Evidence
As of August 31, 2022 @ 3 PM CST
NDX (QQQ) –  Nasdaq 100 (I-T)
Weekly Charts
(Short-Term)
Daily Charts
PATTERN STRUCTURE/
TREND CONDITION

last change
8/12/22 

last change 8/22/22 

REVERSAL “SCOUT”
MOMENTUM CONDITION

last change 8/31/21


last change 8/22/22 – daily chart


Upside Overview:
The NDX did not reach the projection previously indicated on 8/20/22.  The current technicals suggest the NDX tests 12,575-12,925 – (indicated 9/1/22). A violation below 12,051 first would require reevaluation of the upside projections.

Downside Overview: The NDX reached price projections previously indicated on 8/3/22. Additional price action is needed before the next downside projections can be established.

NDX Longer-Term Outlook (3-6 Months)

NDX LONGER-TERM OUTLOOK (3-6 MONTHS)

Longer-Term Upside Price Projection:                    13,200-13,883
Longer-Term Downside Price Projection:              10,750-10,500

askSlim
Trend & Momentum Technical Evidence
As of August 31, 2022 @ 3 PM CST
NDX (QQQ) –  Nasdaq 100 (L-T)
Monthly Charts
(I-T)
Weekly Charts
PATTERN STRUCTURE/
TREND CONDITION

last change 7/5/22


last change
8/12/22 
MOMENTUM CONDITION

last change 4/18/22

last change 8/31/21

 

 

Upside Overview: The NDX pushed deep into the projection zone previously indicated on 5/12/22. The current technicals suggest the NDX tests 13,200-13,883 (indicated 5/12/22) – neared the top-end of the projection zone on 8/16.  A violation below 12,013 first would require reevaluation of the upside projections – updated 9/1/22 

 

 

Downside Overview: The NDX reached the price projections previously indicated on 5/5/22. The current technicals suggest a downside price projection over the next 3-6 months of 10,750-10,500 (indicated 5/20/22). A close above 13,820 first would require a reevaluation of the downside projections.


 

RUSSELL 2000 – (RUT)
askSlim Charts

 

2-HR Chart with Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator, Reversal Scout and Key S-T Support & Resistance Zones


Slim’s Annotated RUT Daily Chart with additional Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator and Reversal Scout

 

Slim’s Annotated RUT Weekly Chart with “Reversal Scout”

RUT Short-Term Outlook (1-3 Weeks)

Short-Term Upside Price Projection:          1910-1937
Short-Term Downside Price Projection:    projection satisfied – more market data needed

askSlim
Trend & Momentum Technical Evidence
As of August 31
, 2022 @ 3 PM CST
RUT (IWM) – Russell 2000 (Short-Term)
Daily Charts
(Near-Term)
Intraday Charts
PATTERN STRUCTURE/
TREND CONDITION

last change 8/22/22

last change 8/26/22
SLIM RIBBON
MOMENTUM CONDITION

last change 8/26/22 – daily chart


last change 8/26/22 – 2hr chart
REVERSAL “SCOUT”
last change 8/23/22 – daily chart

last change 8/26/22 – 2hr chart

Upside Overview: The RUT reached the middle of the price projection zone previously indicated on 8/29/22.  The current technicals suggest an upside price projection over the next 1-3 weeks of 1910-1937 (indicated 8/29/22). A close below 1789 first would require a reevaluation of the upside projections.

Downside Overview:

The RUT reached the price projection zone previously indicated on 8/29/22. Additional price action is needed before the next downside projections can be established.

RUT Intermediate-Term Outlook (1-2 Months)

Intermediate-Term Upside Price Projection:                    1937-1976
Intermediate-Term Downside Price Projection:               projection satisfied – more market data needed

 

askSlim
Trend & Momentum Technical Evidence
As of August 31, 2022 @ 3 PM CST
RUT (IWM) – Russell 2000 (I-T)
Weekly Charts
(Short-Term)
Daily Charts
PATTERN STRUCTURE/
TREND CONDITION

last change
8/8/22

last change 8/22/22

REVERSAL “SCOUT” last change 7/19/22

last change 8/23/22 –
daily chart

 

 

Upside Overview: The RUT came within three points of the lower-end of the projection on 8/16/22. An advance in the intermediate-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the RUT to 1937-1976  (indicated 8/29/22) –  A close below 1785 would require reevaluation of the upside projections.

 

Downside Overview: The RUT reached the price projection zone previously indicated on 8/8/22. Additional price action is needed before the next downside projections can be established.

RUT Longer-Term Outlook (3-6 Months)

Longer-Term Upside Price Projection:                     2015-2122

Longer-Term Downside Price Projection:              projection satisfied – more market data needed

askSlim
Trend & Momentum Technical Evidence
As of August 31, 2022 @ 3 PM CST
RUT (IWM) – Russell 2000 (L-T)
Monthly Charts
(I-T)
Weekly Charts
PATTERN STRUCTURE/
TREND CONDITION

last change 8/12/22

last change
8/8/22
MOMENTUM CONDITION

last change 1/27/22

last change 7/19/22

 


Upside Overview:
The RUT entered the price projections previously indicated on 5/10/22. An advance in the long-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the RUT to 2015-2122 (indicated 5/10/22) – entered price projection on 8/11/22. A break below 1795 first would require reevaluation of the upside levels – updated 8/20/22. 

 

Downside Overview: The RUT entered projection zone previously indicated on 8/20/22. Additional price action is needed before the next downside projections can be established.

 


TECHNICAL EVIDENCE COMPARISON

Momentum Tracker & Charts

askSlim Trend & Momentum Tracker

INDEX L-T
Trend Condition
L-T
Momentum Condition
  I-T
Trend Condition
I-T 
Momentum Condition
S-T
Trend Condition
S-T 
Momentum Condition
N-T
Trend Condition
N-T 
Momentum Condition
  MCI READING
(-100 to +100), >25 =positive <-25=negative) 
MCI RATE OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE
SPX   -40 +0
 NDX   -40 +0
 RUT   -40 +0

 


2hr Intraday Area Chart “Comparison” with SLIM Ribbon Momentum Indicator & MCI

 


 

Cycle Analysis Table:

 

askSlim –
Cycle Analysis
  WEEKLY CYCLE STRUCTURE WEEKLY CYCLE PHASE
(idealized timing)
PROJECTED DATE AND RANGE FOR  WEEKLY CYCLE LOW   DAILY CYCLE STRUCTURE DAILY CYCLE PHASE
(idealized timing)
PROJECTED DATE AND RANGE FOR  DAILY “DOMINANT” CYCLE LOW
SPX  
negative cycle
neutralized 8
/11/22

DECLINING 9/18/22
(8/29/22-10/14/22)
Minor Cycles
9/25
 
negative cycle breakdown

confirmed  8/26/22
PEAKING –
Note… cycle breakdwon below 4112.09 last Friday, 8/26, shifting the cycle structure negative and signaling the likelihood of a left hand translation – meaning the odds of a cycle peak already occurring at 4325 were greatly increased leaving a lot of time for additional downside risk
9/26/22
(9/21-9/29)
Minor Cycles
8/31, 9/27
NDX  
negative cycle
neutralized 8
/15/22

DECLINING 9/18/22
(8/29/22-10/7/22)
Minor Cycles
9/18
 
negative cycle breakdown

confirmed  
8/22/22
PEAKING – Note cycle breakdown below 12,945 last Friday, 8/26 shifting the cycle structure negative and signaling the likelihood of a left hand translation – meaning the odds of a cycle peak already occurring at 13,720 were greatly increased leaving a lot of time for additional downside risk 9/26/22
(9/21-9/29)
Minor Cycles
8/31, 9/27
RUT  

negative cycle
neutralized 8
/10/22
DECLINING 10/23/22
10/3/22-11/11/22
Minor Cycles
10/23
 
negative cycle breakdown
confirmed  8/26/22

PEAKING – Note cycle breakdown below 1904 last Friday, 8/26 shifting the cycle structure negative and signaling the likelihood of a left hand translation – meaning the odds of a cycle peak already occurring at 2030 were greatly increased leaving a lot of time for additional downside risk 9/26/22
(9/21-9/29)
Minor Cycles
8/31, 9/27

Here’s a brief video clip helping to explain the information contained in the askSlim “Cycle Analysis” table.  https://www.loom.com/share/c0256c489b5847aa87010b12db53c6c7


 

Idealized Cycle Diagram:

 

Helpful Tips:

  • Slim Ribbon Momentum Key
    Green = Positive Momentum
    Red = Negative Momentum 
    Purple = Neutral Momentum
  • Hull Moving Average (HMA) Key
    Green = Positive Condition
    Purple = Negative Condition

 

 

 

  • Our use of “Near-Term” refers to the use of 2hr intraday charts and other trend analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last 5-7 trading days. Our use of “Short-Term” refers to the use of primarily daily charts and other trend analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last few to several weeks. Our use of “Intermediate-Term” refers to the use of primarily weekly charts and other trend analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last several weeks to several months. Our use of “Long-Term” refers to the use of primarily monthly charts and other trend analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last several months to several years.

DISCLAIMERS

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