The askSlim “Reversal Scout” momentum indicator is designed to provide an indication of the likely directional bias as well as potential turning points as its momentum condition shifts from positive to negative and vice versa. A positive momentum condition is reflected when the indicator is green and a negative momentum condition is reflected when the indicator is purple.

It is a fundamental truth that the inherent nature of the markets always offers the possibility that anything can happen. Risk is always present for upside and downside surprises. As traders, we should be cognizant of this fact and structure our trade planning and risk management accordingly – whether the technical evidence is clearly bullish, bearish or neutral with mixed signals. At askSlim we are bull/bear agnostic. The market messages drive our technical outlook. The information contained in the SIR Daily Snapshot is the result of a proprietary blend of trend, momentum, swing high/swing low techniques and cycle analysis. We look for alignment at multiple timeframes in the technical evidence to be able to provide the highest probability of the overall trend/pattern structure, short-term directional bias, key support & resistance levels as well as upside and downside price projections. A brief video overview of the Daily Snapshot is available here. https://www.loom.com/share/1cc008ef6bca42a5bcdd81bde0a3bed4

S-T Directional Bias and Technical Briefings (few days to few weeks outlook):
The SPX closed down about 31 points at 4465.48

• S-T BIAS: The sum of the technical evidence as of the market close suggests the SPX current short-term directional bias has been downgraded to NEUTRAL as the near-term conditions closed today’s session on the weaker side while short-term momentum currently remains positive. Changes from the prior report are indicated in italicized font.
• Noteworthy Technical Highlights:
  • On 4/3/23 it was indicated the Weekly SPX cycle structure shifted positive. To damage the positive primary I-T/weekly cycle structure the SPX would currently need a weekly close below 4111.
  • During the week of 5/22 the SPX closed over 4312 (Major 61.8% Fib) and the SPX neutralized the damage done from the Jan 22 high to the Oct 22 low. This technical occurrence suggested a challenge of 4537 (Major 78.6%) – which occurred the week of 7/17.
  • The SPX surpassing the major 78.6% Fib in mid July opened up the door to a challenge of the prior ATH near 4818.62 in the next 3-4 months. Currently a close below 4348 would require a re-evaluation of this outlook.
  • The magnitude of the upward price action in the SPX and NDX from their 8/18 lows required us to review the “money flow/cycle patterns.” On Thursday, 8/24 we made a minor revision to the daily cycle brackets.The previous cycle lengths were 50 and 25-days. The change reflects a likelihood that the harmonics have opened up minimally to 52 and 26-days, with a slight right shift. The RUT “green dashed” cycle, which has been overlaid on SPX and NDX because of its continued influence, shows clear minor 1/3s as they relate to the other indexes, which show harmonics of a dominant and minor 1/2 cycles.
  • The advance in the SPX off of the key near-term support that started on 8/25 (see 2hr chart) as part of the overall new rising phase satisfied the previously indicated short-term and intermediate upside projection zones. Based on this strength new projections were established in both time frames which are indicated in the “Outlook” sections below.
  • Last Wednesday’s close above the Int. Minor and Daily Cycle 61.8% Fib began to repair the prior technical damage and neutralized their respective negative minor cycle structures. The close above the 61.8% Fib and the Daily Reversal Scout shifting positive also warned the larger dominant Int. Cycle Pattern is starting a new leg higher. A close below 4413 and a violation of 4378 would be needed to require a re-evaluation of this outlook and suggest the downside move is still incomplete. 
  • A push above 4550 will repair the prior technical damage and require a review of the Intermediate cycle timing and projections. 
• 9/6/23 KEY UPDATES: .
  • The following are important levels to monitor.
    •  On the upside:
      • Unless the SPX closes below 4419 first, then a challenge of 4544-4580 is the tertiary upside projection zone for the short-term outlook. In last Friday’s session the SPX came within 2 points of the lower-end of this zone.  The SPX has a key minor resistance zone from 4491-4521 that it will need to push through to trigger a new upside impulse/advance – see 2hr chart.
    • On the downside: 
      • Indicated on 9/5 – Unless the SPX pushes above 4517 and the 2hr RS shifts back positive first, then a test of 4486-4476 is the likely near-term downside projection zone due to the 2hr RS shifting negative – Note this near-term projection was reached and exceeded today. 
      • The SPX closed today’s session near the top-end of the short-term support zone from 4462-4413 – see 2hr chart
      • Currently the SPX would need a close below 4413 and a violation below 4378 to warn the advance is over and the prior downside move is likely incomplete 
• askSlim Methodology Review.
  • • • *Cycle Translation: The location of a cycle peak. Left-Hand Translation: Peaking before the ideal peak (tends to be bearish). Right-Hand Translation: Peaking after the ideal peak (tends to be bullish).
      • *Period of Risk: – the way it is calculated never changes – it is a window of time that includes the projected late peaking phase through the “cycle low timing window”. It is not meant to be used as a right or wrong technical data point. Its primary trade planning function is to be used as a timing reference – bringing our attention to a projected window of time where the downside risks increase due to the typical nature of money flow patterns and volatility becomes elevated as the cycle bottoming process completes and the new rising phase starts. On the other hand, what always changes, is price – meaning there is no certainty on where the price peaks and where the low forms. The “Period of Risk” is a range of time that includes the late peaking phase through the Cycle Low timing window (on the SPX Daily/Weekly Charts Slim will normally highlight this period in yellow)

• Upside – Key Resistance Levels and Downside – Key Support Levels
  • • See 2hr, daily and weekly charts

The NDX closed down about 137 points at 15,371.44

To see all of the NDX Charts, Projections, Overviews, Trend Conditions, and Momentum analysis put out every trading day in our Stock Index Report (SIR) Daily Snapshot, join our Level 1 membership level today!

The RUT closed down about 6 points at 1874.28

To see all of the RUT Charts, Projections, Overviews, Trend Conditions, and Momentum analysis put out every trading day in our Stock Index Report (SIR) Daily Snapshot, join our Level 1 membership level today!

2-HR Chart with Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator, Reversal Scout and Key S-T Support & Resistance Zones
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Slim’s Annotated SPX Daily Chart with additional Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator and Reversal Scout

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Slim’s Annotated SPX Weekly Chart with “Reversal Scout” 

Short-Term Upside Price Projection:        4544-4580

Short-Term Downside Price Projection:  projection satisfied – more market data needed

 

askSlim Trend & Momentum Technical Evidence As of September 6, 2023 @ 3 PM CST
SPX (SPY) – S&P 500	(Short-Term) Daily Charts	(Near-Term) Intraday Charts
PATTERN STRUCTURE/ TREND CONDITION	last change 8/30/23	last change 9/5/23
SLIM RIBBON MOMENTUM CONDITION	last change 9/1/23 –daily chart	last change 9/6/23
REVERSAL “SCOUT”	last change 8/29/23	last change 9/5/23

Upside Overview: On 9/1 the SPX came within 2 points of the lower-end of the upside projection zone indicated on 8/30/23.  The current technicals suggest an upside price projection over the next 1-3 weeks of 4544-4580 (indicated 8/30/23). A violation below 4436 first would require a reevaluation of the upside projections – updated 9/1.

 

Downside Overview: On 9/6 the SPX satisfied the previously indicated projection zone indicated on 8/30/23. projection satisfied – more market data needed

 

The full SPX Intermediate-Term & Long-Term Outlooks including Price Projections, Upside/Downside Overviews, Trend Conditions, and Momentum analysis are published by 8PM CST every trading day in our premium Stock Index Report (SIR) Daily Snapshot.
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askSlim Trend & Momentum Tracker

INDEX

L-T Trend Condition

L-T Momentum Condition

I-T Trend Condition

I-T Momentum Condition

S-T Trend Condition

S-T Momentum Condition

N-T Trend Condition

N-T Momentum Condition

MCI READING (-100 to +100), >25 =positive <-25=negative)

MCI RATE OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE

SPX

-97

+3

NDX

-96

0

RUT

-97

+4

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2hr Intraday Area Chart “Comparison” with SLIM Ribbon Momentum Indicator & MCI

• Our use of “Near-Term” refers to the use of 2hr intraday charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last 5-7 trading days to assist with a trade set-up outlook period of the next 1-5 market sessions or so. Our use of “Short-Term” refers to the use of primarily daily charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last few to several weeks to assist with a trade set-up outlook period of the next 1-3 weeks or so. Our use of “Intermediate-Term” refers to the use of primarily weekly charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last several weeks to several months to assist with a trade set-up outlook period of the next 3-8 weeks or so. Our use of “Long-Term” refers to the use of primarily monthly charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last several months to several years to assist with position trade set-ups with an outlook period of greater than two months.