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Our custom multiple-time-frame annotated charts deliver insights into directional bias, timing, and key price levels by utilizing our unique askSlim methodology that combines cycle analysis, momentum/trend studies, and swing high/swing low techniques.
This chart analysis of Copper Futures (/HG) was done as a part of our weekly Market Week show. The information in this article is current as of 6/24/22.
Looking at the long-term view of Copper Futures, two very notable events have transpired: 1. A period of bullishness from early-2020 into mid-2021, which marked a new high, was followed by a steep correction which tested intermediate-term cycle low support. 2. After nearly a year of consolidation from mid-2021 to early-2022, a new high was marked again in the current intermediate-term cycle. This was followed by a downturn in the Reversal Scout Momentum Indicator as well as a break through cycle low support this past May.
The current intermediate-term cycle for /HG is the first to have a break through cycle low support in recent years, which gives an indication that the next rally will likely fail in the projected sell zone, which in this case has occurred.
We project that this downward trajectory for Copper Futures will likely continue until late-July to early-August, when the current cycle is projected to bottom. It’s likely that the start of the next intermediate-term cycle will include a rally which we project will fail as /HG continues downward.
Copper vs 10-Year Treasury Yields
The above chart shows a comparison between Copper Futures and 10-Year Treasury Yields from 2013 until today. These symbols have mirrored each other almost perfectly for some time, and we use that knowledge when projecting into the future.
There has recently been a sharp decline in /HG, and it is our projection that a similar move is due for TNX in the coming weeks and months.
From these projections, we can extrapolate further and deduce that, in the intermediate-term next 3-6 weeks:
– Treasury Yields are likely peaking
– The dollar is likely peaking
– The Euro is likely bottoming
– Gold-Silver are likely bottoming
– Stocks are likely bottoming
Of course, these are all projections, and chart analysis is never this simple. As always, we will continue to update our analysis on these sectors of the market for our community of members here at askSlim.com.
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To learn more about the askSlim Method of performing Cycle Analysis, you can read our series, Introduction to Cycle Analysis.