Summary:

  • Mosaic (MOS) sank 6% on Tuesday, after the fertilizer producer posted earnings that missed Wall Street expectations.
  • Based on its market cycles, the stock may bounce in the near term but there is still plenty more downside risk in the coming months.

The company reported earnings per share of $0.12 and total revenue of $2.1 billion, compared to analyst estimates of $0.29 and $2.3 billion. Management also lowered its guidance for both earnings and revenue.

CEO James O’Rourke explained that, “We have seen two consecutive seasons negatively impacted by weather, which in turn has impacted our first half results and tempered our full-year financial outlook.”

Our approach to stock analysis uses market cycles to project price action. MOS is in the declining phase of its current minor cycle. More importantly, the stock broke the low from which it started the present cycle, very early in the pattern. It means that there is still plenty of time left to decline further.

For more from Slim, or to learn about cycle analysis, check out the askSlim Market Week show every Friday on our YouTube channel