Select Sector SPDR ETF Review – (1/17/21) SAMPLE

XLE Weekly Chart

XLE Daily Chart

SYMBOL		LONG-TERM TREND CONDITION	LONG-TERM  MOMENTUM  (MONTHLY CHART)	INTERMEDIATE TREND CONDITION	INTERMEDIATE MOMENTUM (WEEKLY CHART)	SHORT-TERM TREND CONDITION	SHORT-TERM MOMENTUM (DAILY CHART)		Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Weekly Chart)	Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Daily Chart)
XLE									7/11/21 7/1-7/21 minor cycle 3/14/21	1/21/21 1/18-1/24

Technical Notes – Updated as of 1/16/20 @42.75

Upside Overview 

• XLE remains in a bullish short-term pattern structure with positive intermediate momentum, continuing to leave the door open to upside gains.
• XLE neared a key intermediate fib extension/resistance target zone from 45.60-48.37 and pulled back late last week.
• XLE would currently need a push above 44.45 to suggest another likely run at new recovery highs is underway. 
• The current bullish condition and pattern structure suggests a likely attempt at 47.60-48.50 over the next 3-8 weeks
• Note…46.60-48.05 is also a longer-term resistance zone including the weekly cycle high from the May 2020 recovery rally.

Downside Overview 

• XLE continues to have multiple layers of short-term support
• XLE has a short-term support zone from 42.15-40.35
• XLE has a key short-term support zone from 40.34-39.03
• Currently a close below 40.35 (negative warning) and a violation of 39.05 (negative confirmation) would likely require a reevaluation of the bullish short term outlook. 
• A violation of 37.02 would likely require a reevaluation of the intermediate bullish outlook and upside price projections. 

XLF Weekly Chart

XLF Daily Chart

SYMBOL		LONG-TERM TREND CONDITION	LONG-TERM  MOMENTUM  (MONTHLY CHART)	INTERMEDIATE TREND CONDITION	INTERMEDIATE MOMENTUM (WEEKLY CHART)	SHORT-TERM TREND CONDITION	SHORT-TERM MOMENTUM (DAILY CHART)		Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Weekly Chart)	Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Daily Chart)
XLF									3/28/21 3/18-4/7 minor cycle 1/24/21	1/14/21 1/11-1/19/21

Technical Notes – Updated as of 1/15/21 at 30.94

Upside Overview

• XLF remains in a bullish short-term pattern structure with positive intermediate momentum, continuing to leave the door open upside gains.
• The current bullish condition suggests a likely attempt at an I-T fib extension/resistance target zone between 31.83-33.02. Note…XLF neared the lower-end of this zone last week.
• XLF would currently need a push above 31.45 to suggest another likely run at new highs is underway. 
• Above 33.02 XLF has a L-T Fib extension/resistance zone from 33.49-34.64

Downside Overview

• XLF has a short-term support zone from 30.55-29.89
• XLF has a key short-term support zone from 29.88-29.42
• Currently a close below 29.89 (negative warning) and a violation of 28.11 (negative confirmation) would likely require a reevaluation of the bullish short term outlook. 

XLI Weekly Chart

XLI Daily Chart

SYMBOL		LONG-TERM TREND CONDITION	LONG-TERM  MOMENTUM  (MONTHLY CHART)	INTERMEDIATE TREND CONDITION	INTERMEDIATE MOMENTUM (WEEKLY CHART)	SHORT-TERM TREND CONDITION	SHORT-TERM MOMENTUM (DAILY CHART)		Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Weekly Chart)	Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Daily Chart)
XLI									1/18/21 1/8-1/28	1/27/21 1/24-1/30

Technical Notes – Updated as of 1/15/20 at 88.83

Upside Overview

• XLI daily and weekly cycle configurations remain positive, continuing to leave the door open upside gains.
• The current bullish condition suggests a likely attempt at an I-T fib extension/resistance target zone between 93.05-95.50
• XLI would currently need a push above 90.15 to suggest another likely run at new highs is underway. 
• Above 95.50 we are watching 97.70-98.11 as a key intermediate resistance zone where some increased selling pressure is likely to appear and set off a deeper short-term pullback.

Downside Overview

• XLI has closed inside of a short-term support zone from 88.87-87.74
• XLI has a key short-term support zone from 87.73-86.94
• Currently a close below 87.74 (negative warning) and a violation of 86.94 (negative confirmation) would likely require a reevaluation of the bullish short term outlook. 

XLK Weekly Chart


XLK Daily Chart

SYMBOL		LONG-TERM TREND CONDITION	LONG-TERM  MOMENTUM  (MONTHLY CHART)	INTERMEDIATE TREND CONDITION	INTERMEDIATE MOMENTUM (WEEKLY CHART)	SHORT-TERM TREND CONDITION	SHORT-TERM MOMENTUM (DAILY CHART)		Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Weekly Chart)	Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Daily Chart)
XLK									2/7/21 1/28-2/17 minor cycle 2/7/21	2/3/21 2/1-2/6 minor cycle 2/3/21

Technical Notes – Updated as of 1/15/21 at 127.42

Upside Overview

• XLK remains bullish at multiple timeframes, however, some near-term (2hr chart) weakness has entered the picture. 
• XLK would currently need a push above 130.30 to suggest another likely run at new highs is underway
• XLK has a key short-term target fib extension/resistance zone from 132.93-133.93, then a major one from 136.06-139.04

Downside Overview

• XLK closed the week inside of a key minor support zone from 128.59-127.17
• Currently a close below 128 (negative warning – occurred on 1/15/21) and a violation of 126.52 (negative confirmation) would likely require a reevaluation of the bullish short term outlook and open the door to tests of deeper support levels
• XLK has a key short-term support zone from 126.16-124.73
• XLK has daily cycle low support at 122.90. A violation of this level would likely inflict technical damage to the short-term pattern and suggest a key short term or intermediate -term high is in place.

XLP Weekly Chart


XLP Daily Chart

SYMBOL		LONG-TERM TREND CONDITION	LONG-TERM  MOMENTUM  (MONTHLY CHART)	INTERMEDIATE TREND CONDITION	INTERMEDIATE MOMENTUM (WEEKLY CHART)	SHORT-TERM TREND CONDITION	SHORT-TERM MOMENTUM (DAILY CHART)		Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Weekly Chart)	Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Daily Chart)
XLP									6/6/21 5/27/21-6/16/21 minor cycle 2/15/21	1/27/21 1/24-1/30/21

Technical Notes – Updated as of 1/15/21 at 65.63

Upside Overview

• XLP short-term technical condition is bearish. S-T and I-T momentum are negative. I-T trend and L-T trend and momentum remain bullish.
• XLP continued to underperform as of late and is relatively weak as it has failed to breakout to new highs while the major indexes have.
• Currently a close above 67.05 (positive warning) and a push above 67.50 (positive confirmation) would suggest a new upleg to new highs is likely underway.
• XLP has an initial key intermediate fib extension/resistance zone from 70.10-71.21

Downside Overview

• XLP closed testing the top-end of an intermediate support zone from 65.65-64.85
• XLP has a key intermediate support zone from 64.84-62.92
• Currently a close below 64.05 would likely neutralize the intermediate bullish pattern and open the door to a deeper and longer duration pullback/correction.