Hello, askSlim members! 

A new Select Sector SPDR ETF Review has been posted. We invite your feedback. As with all of our products and services our goal is to match your needs as passionate traders, investors, and lifelong students of the market. Comments and questions can be posted below. Enjoy!

The Select Sector SPDR ETF Review is designed to provide active traders and investors with a broad technical picture of key sectors of the S&P 500 including the XLE (Energy), XLF (Financials), XLI (Industrials), XLK (Technology) and XLP (Consumer Staples) sectors that will feature Slim’s Annotated Daily and Weekly charts and key actionable technical insights. Furthermore you will be able to compare the relative performance of the S&P 500 against all eleven Select SPDR ETFs at multiple timeframes with our proprietary momentum performance tracker. 

 

XLE (ENERGY)
Slim's Annotated XLE Charts

XLE Weekly Chart

XLE Daily Chart

XLE Technical Overview

 

SYMBOL   INTERMEDIATE
TREND CONDITION 
INTERMEDIATE MOMENTUM (WEEKLY CHART) SHORT-TERM TREND CONDITION SHORT-TERM MOMENTUM (DAILY CHART)   Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low
(Weekly Chart)
Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low
(Daily Chart)
XLE     6/23/19
6/13-7/3
minor cycle
3/31/19
4/1/19
3/29-4/5
minor cycle
3/7/19


Technical Notes – Updated as of 2/21/19 market close at 65.57:

Upside Overview

  • Until the positive alignment currently in the short-term trend and short-term and intermediate momentum conditions change- the XLE is likely to extend its rally against its bearish intermediate trend pushing further into key resistance zones. 
  • XLE has intermediate resistance zones from 67-69, then major a resistance zone from 73-76.50 
  • A close above 70.50 would likely neutralize the bearish intermediate trend condition opening the door to a likely test of 73-76.

Downside Overview

  • A pullback is likely to test short-term support zone from 64.75-62 and on a more aggressive move lower an intermediate support zone from 60-58.50. 
  • A close below 58 will likely neutralize the bullish short-term trend condition increasing the risk of a resumption of the intermediate bearish trend and a test of 56.50-53
  • The current negative intermediate trend and longer-term negative momentum reading, at this point, are still suggesting a higher probability of a test of 55-53 in the coming months first before a test of 75-78.


 

XLF (FINANCIALS)
Slim's Annotated XLF Charts

XLF Weekly Chart

XLF Daily Chart

XLF Technical Overview

SYMBOL   INTERMEDIATE
TREND CONDITION 
INTERMEDIATE MOMENTUM (WEEKLY CHART) SHORT-TERM TREND CONDITION SHORT-TERM MOMENTUM (DAILY CHART)   Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low
(Weekly Chart)
Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low
(Daily Chart)
XLF    
5/19/19
5/9-5/29

4/8/19
4/3-4/10

 

Technical Notes – Updated as of 2/21/19 market close at 26.50:

Upside Overview

  • Until the positive alignment currently in the short-term trend and short-term and intermediate momentum conditions shifts – the XLF is likely to extend its rally against its bearish intermediate trend pushing further into key resistance zones. 
  • XLF is testing the top end of an intermediate resistance zone around 26.50, above there it has to contend with a major a resistance zone from 27.15-28.55. 
  • A close above 26.75 would likely neutralize the bearish intermediate trend condition opening the door to a likely test of 27.50-28.55.

Downside Overview

  • A pullback is likely to test a short-term support zone from 26.15-25.75 and on a more aggressive move lower an intermediate support zone from 25.30-24.75. 
  • A close below 25.30 will likely neutralize the bullish short-term trend condition increasing the risk of a deeper correction and resumption of the intermediate bearish trend.
  • The current negative intermediate trend and longer-term negative momentum reading, at this point, are still suggesting a higher probability of lower lows and a test of 23.25-22.00 in the coming months first before a test of 28-30 and new longer term higher highs.

 


XLI (INDUSTRIALS)

Slim's Annotated XLI Charts

XLI Weekly Chart 

XLI Daily Chart

XLI Technical Overview

 

SYMBOL   INTERMEDIATE
TREND CONDITION 
INTERMEDIATE MOMENTUM (WEEKLY CHART) SHORT-TERM TREND CONDITION SHORT-TERM MOMENTUM (DAILY CHART)   Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low
(Weekly Chart)
Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low
(Daily Chart)
XLI    
5/12/19
5/2-5/22

2/28/19
2/25-3/4
minor cycle
2/28/19

 

Technical Notes – Updated as of 2/21/19 market close at 75.71:

Upside Overview

  • With positive alignment currently in the short-term trend and short-term and intermediate momentum conditions – XLI is likely to extend its rally further into the intermediate and major resistance zones. This key resistance zone is from 76-78.
  • A close above 76 without a breakdown in the intermediate momentum on a pullback would likely indicate the XLI is on its way to challenge the October and September 2018 highs around 80.
  • A close above 76 would likely also indicate a shift in the intermediate trend condition to positive. 

Downside Overview

  • Today (2/21/19) the XLI triggered a top warning in one of our proprietary indicators suggesting an extremely overbought condition is developing and a likely minor pullback in the near term. A minor support zone is from 74.25-72.00.
  • A more aggressive correction is likely to test 70.15-68.25. 
  • A close below 70.30 will likely neutralize the bullish short-term trend condition increasing the risk of testing deeper into the lower-end of the support zone from 66.75-63.75.
  • The current neutral intermediate trend and longer-term negative momentum reading, at this point, are suggesting that there is a slightly higher probability of testing below 66 in the coming weeks/months before challenging above 78. This slightly more intermediate-term bearish outlook will likely be negated with a close above 76.

XLK (TECHNOLOGY)
Slim's Annotated XLK Charts

XLK Weekly Chart
 
XLK Daily Chart

XLK Technical Overview

SYMBOL   INTERMEDIATE
TREND CONDITION 
INTERMEDIATE MOMENTUM (WEEKLY CHART) SHORT-TERM TREND CONDITION SHORT-TERM MOMENTUM (DAILY CHART)   Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low
(Weekly Chart)
Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low
(Daily Chart)
XLK    
3/10/19
2/28-3/20

3/6/19
3/4-3/11
minor cycle 3/6/19

Technical Notes – Updated as of 2/21/19 market close at 69.75:

Upside Overview

  • With positive alignment currently in the short-term trend and short-term and intermediate momentum conditions – XLK is likely to extend its rally against its bearish intermediate trend pushing further into key resistance zones. 
  • XLK closed above the top-end of an intermediate resistance zone around 69.15, therefore suggesting a likelihood of challenging a major a resistance zone around 72-72.50. 
  • A close above 69.75 would likely neutralize the bearish intermediate trend condition strengthening the case of further advances.
  • A breakout above 72.50 is likely to suggest a challenge of the October 2018 highs around 76 are underway. 

Downside Overview

  • A minor support zone on a near-term pullback is from 68.85-68.00.
  • A correction is likely to test a short-term support zone from 67.50-66.50 and on a more aggressive move lower an intermediate support zone from 64.25-62.30. 
  • A close below 66.00 will likely neutralize the bullish short-term trend condition increasing the risk of testing deeper into the lower-end of the support zone.
  • A close below 62 will likely indicate a test of the December 2018 lows around 57 are underway.
  • The current negative intermediate trend and longer-term negative momentum reading, at this point, are still suggesting a higher probability of lower lows and testing 62 in the coming months before a challenge of 75 and new longer term higher highs.



XLP (CONSUMER STAPLES)
Slim's Annotated XLP Charts


XLP Weekly Chart

XLP Daily Chart



Technical Overview

SYMBOL   INTERMEDIATE
TREND CONDITION 
INTERMEDIATE MOMENTUM (WEEKLY CHART) SHORT-TERM TREND CONDITION SHORT-TERM MOMENTUM (DAILY CHART)   Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low
(Weekly Chart)
Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low
(Daily Chart)
XLP    
6/23/19
6/13-7/3

3/21/19
3/18-3/25
multiple nested cycle lows due


Technical Notes – Updated as of 2/21/19 market close at 54.69:

Upside Overview

  • With positive alignment currently in the short-term trend and short-term and intermediate momentum conditions – XLP is likely to extend its rally further into the intermediate and major resistance zones. This key resistance zone is from 55-56.75.
  • A breakout above 56.65 would likely indicate the XLI is on its way to challenge the 2018 highs around 59.

Downside Overview

  • A pullback is likely to test a short-term support zone from 52.50-51.50 and on a more aggressive move lower 50.75. 
  • A close below 52.30 will likely neutralize the bullish short-term trend condition increasing the risk of testing deeper into the lower-end of the  support zone.
  • A close below 50.75 will likely suggest the resumption of the bearish intermediate-term trend and a test of December 2018 lows are underway.
  • The current neutral intermediate-trend and longer-term neutral momentum reading, at this point, are suggesting that there is fairly an equal probability of re-testing the December 2018 lows around 48.00 as there is challenging the November 2018 highs around 57 in the coming weeks/months.



RELATIVE PERFORMANCE – ALL SECTOR SPDR ETFs


askSlim Trend & Momentum Tracker

 

INDEX MONTHLY CHART CONDITION DATE OF LAST CHANGE WEEKLY CHART CONDITION DATE OF LAST CHANGE DAILY CHART CONDITION DATE OF LAST CHANGE 2HR INTRADAY CHART CONDITION DATE OF LAST CHANGE MCI READING
(-100 to +100) 
MCI RATE OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE
SPX
S&P 500
12/2018 Week of 1/14/19 1/16/19 2/12/19 96 -3
XLB
Materials
10/2018 Week of 1/14/19 1/18/19 2/12/19 98 +70
XLC
Communication
Services
not enough data yet not enough data yet Week of 1/14/19 1/10/19 2/21/19 74 -6
XLE
Energy
11/2018 Week of 1/14/19 1/16/19 2/13/19 90 +62
XLF
Financials
  11/2018 Week of 1/14/19 1/16/19 2/12/19 92 +74
XLI
Industrials
  11/2018 Week of 1/14/19 1/15/19 2/11/19 98 -2
XLK
Technology
  12/2018 Week of 1/14/19 1/18/19 2/11/19 98 -2
XLP
Consumer Staples
  1/2019 Week of 1/28/19 2/1/19 1/30/19 39 +13
XLRE
Real Estate
  1/2019 Week of 1/21/19 1/18/19 2/21/19 92 -4
XLU
Utilities
  9/2018 Week of 2/4/19 2/1/19 1/30/19 100 +18
XLV
Health Care
  7/2018 Week of 1/21/19 1/18/19 2/21/19 91 +51
XLY
Consumer
Discretionary
  2/2019 Week of 1/14/19 1/10/19 2/12/19 94 -6

 


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