Select Sector SPDR ETF Review – (7/12/20) v1.71

XLE Weekly Chart

XLE Daily Chart

XLF Weekly Chart

XLF Daily Chart

SYMBOL		LONG-TERM TREND CONDITION	LONG-TERM  MOMENTUM  (MONTHLY CHART)	INTERMEDIATE TREND CONDITION	INTERMEDIATE MOMENTUM (WEEKLY CHART)	SHORT-TERM TREND CONDITION	SHORT-TERM MOMENTUM (DAILY CHART)		Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Weekly Chart)	Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Daily Chart)
XLF									8/30/20 8/20-9/10	7/13/20 7/10-7/16/20

Technical Notes – Updated as of 7/10/20 at 23.46

Upside Overview

• XLF longer-term conditions remain bearish. Weekly technical conditions remain bearish, however, XLF has a bottom pending on the daily chart. 
• XLF has a key short-term resistance zone from 24.20-24.75
• A close above 25.35 would likely shift the short-term trend condition back to positive and suggest XLF is on its way to challenge 26.00
• A breakout above 26.00 suggests XLF is on its way to challenge 26.96

Downside Overview

• XLF has a key minor support zone from 23-22.70
• XLF has a key intermediate support level at 22.17 and an initial intermediate support zone from 21.52-20.95
• A close below 21 will open the door to a test of key intermediate support from 19.50-17.49 (is the march low)

XLI Weekly Chart

XLI Daily Chart

SYMBOL		LONG-TERM TREND CONDITION	LONG-TERM  MOMENTUM  (MONTHLY CHART)	INTERMEDIATE TREND CONDITION	INTERMEDIATE MOMENTUM (WEEKLY CHART)	SHORT-TERM TREND CONDITION	SHORT-TERM MOMENTUM (DAILY CHART)		Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Weekly Chart)	Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Daily Chart)
XLI									7/26/20 7/16-8/5 minor cycle 7/26/20	7/6/20 7/3-7/9

Technical Notes – Updated as of 7/10/20 at 68.01

Upside Overview

• XLI longer-term conditions remain bearish while the intermediate and short-term conditions are mostly neutral.
• XLI has a key minor resistance zone from 68.65-69.62
• XLI has a key short-term resistance zone from 71.15-72.40
• A close above 72.40 would open the door to a challenge of 74.25 and a breakout above 74.25 would likely bring a challenge of the June recovery high at 76.53.

Downside Overview

• XLI found some buyers last week in a key short-term support zone from 67.75-66.50
• A break below 66.50 will open the door to a test of an initial intermediate support zone from 64.48-62.18
• A close below 64.45 is likely needed to shift the short-term technical condition neutral and would open the door to additional downside risk. 
• Below 62.18 XLI has another intermediate support zone from 61.10-58.77

XLK Weekly Chart


XLK Daily Chart

SYMBOL		LONG-TERM TREND CONDITION	LONG-TERM  MOMENTUM  (MONTHLY CHART)	INTERMEDIATE TREND CONDITION	INTERMEDIATE MOMENTUM (WEEKLY CHART)	SHORT-TERM TREND CONDITION	SHORT-TERM MOMENTUM (DAILY CHART)		Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Weekly Chart)	Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Daily Chart)
XLK									8/23/20 8/13-9/3 minor cycle 8/23/20	7/13/20 7/11-7/15 minor cycle 7/13/20

Technical Notes – Updated as of 7/10/20 at 108.08

Upside Overview

• XLK bullish technical condition remains firmly intact all time-frames, however, XLK is very extended relative to its 89 day SMA which suggests a short-term pullback is due. 
• XLK printed another new all-time high last week at 108.62.
• Above 108.62 we are watching 109.57-111.19 as the next key short-term fib extension zone where a reversal could develop.

Downside Overview

• XLK has a key minor support zone from 106.15-105.21 
• A close below 106 would open the door to a test of the short-term support zones from 104.50-102.95, then from 102.05-99.70

XLP Weekly Chart


XLP Daily Chart

SYMBOL		LONG-TERM TREND CONDITION	LONG-TERM  MOMENTUM  (MONTHLY CHART)	INTERMEDIATE TREND CONDITION	INTERMEDIATE MOMENTUM (WEEKLY CHART)	SHORT-TERM TREND CONDITION	SHORT-TERM MOMENTUM (DAILY CHART)		Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Weekly Chart)	Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Daily Chart)
XLP									11/15/20 11/5-11/25/20 minor cycle 8/30/20	8/4/20 8/1-8/7/20 minor cycle 6/29/20

Technical Notes – Updated as of 7/10/20 at 60.29

Upside Overview

• XLP technical picture has improved, especially the intermediate and shorter term time-frames. 
• XLP pushed above a key minor resistance zone from 58.40-59.30 and closed in the top-end of a key short-term resistance zone from 59.60-60.47
• The recent breakout above 60.25 has likely triggered a move to challenge the recent recovery high of 61.10.
• Above 61.10 we are watching 62.18, then 63.57-65.34 as the next key intermediate resistance/target zones. 
• A close below 58.30 would likely be needed to negate the more bullish upside scenario. 

Downside Overview

• XLP has key minor support zone from 59.64-59.19
• XLP has short-term support zone from 59.14-58.35
• A violation of 57.40 will open the door to a test of  initial intermediate support zone from 55.95-54.36.
• XLP has a key I-T support zone from 52.80-50.52.