Select Sector SPDR ETF Review – (8/23/20) v1.77

XLE Weekly Chart

XLE Daily Chart

XLF Weekly Chart

XLF Daily Chart

SYMBOL		LONG-TERM TREND CONDITION	LONG-TERM  MOMENTUM  (MONTHLY CHART)	INTERMEDIATE TREND CONDITION	INTERMEDIATE MOMENTUM (WEEKLY CHART)	SHORT-TERM TREND CONDITION	SHORT-TERM MOMENTUM (DAILY CHART)		Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Weekly Chart)	Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Daily Chart)
XLF									8/30/20 8/20-9/10	8/27/20 8/24-8/30/20

Technical Notes – Updated as of 8/21/20 at 24.31

Upside Overview

• Short-term and intermediate technical conditions in XLF are slightly bullish 
• Our cycle work on both the weekly and daily chart is projecting a new rising phase due start in the next week or so.
• The recent push above 24.94 on 8/11/20 suggests a likely challenge of the recovery high at 26.83 in the next 3-8 weeks. 
• A close below 24.48 (warning) which occurred on 8/20/20 and a violation of 23.70 (confirmation) are likely needed to negate the current more bullish short-term outlook.

Downside Overview

• XLF closed the week in a key minor support zone from 24.74-24.15
• XLF has a key short-term support zone from 23.75-23.20
• A break below 22.90 would likely trigger a retest of 22.49 and a violation of 22.49 would suggest a deeper corrective phase is underway. 

XLI Weekly Chart

XLI Daily Chart

SYMBOL		LONG-TERM TREND CONDITION	LONG-TERM  MOMENTUM  (MONTHLY CHART)	INTERMEDIATE TREND CONDITION	INTERMEDIATE MOMENTUM (WEEKLY CHART)	SHORT-TERM TREND CONDITION	SHORT-TERM MOMENTUM (DAILY CHART)		Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Weekly Chart)	Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Daily Chart)
XLI									8/30/20 8/20-9/9 possible alternative low occurred week of 8/2/20	8/27/20 8/24-8/30

Technical Notes – Updated as of 8/21/20 at 76.45

Upside Overview

• XLI intermediate and short-term conditions continue to be mostly bullish.
• XLI has a key minor resistance zone from 77.50-78.30
• A push above 78.30 is likely to trigger a confrontation of an intermediate-term resistance/target zone from 80.58-81.55 
• A push above 81.55 is likely to suggest a challenge of the prior high 85.33. 
• A close below 73.60 and a violation of 72.24 are likely needed to negate the current more bullish short-term outlook. Currently, a close below 70.75 and a violation of 68.60 would likely be needed to shift the intermediate pattern negative.

Downside Overview

• XLI a short-term support zone from 75.45-73.63
• XLI a key short-term support zone from 72.25-70.75

XLK Weekly Chart


XLK Daily Chart

SYMBOL		LONG-TERM TREND CONDITION	LONG-TERM  MOMENTUM  (MONTHLY CHART)	INTERMEDIATE TREND CONDITION	INTERMEDIATE MOMENTUM (WEEKLY CHART)	SHORT-TERM TREND CONDITION	SHORT-TERM MOMENTUM (DAILY CHART)		Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Weekly Chart)	Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Daily Chart)
XLK									8/23/20 8/13-9/3 minor cycle 8/23/20	9/3/20 9/1-9/6 minor cycle 8/9/20

Technical Notes – Updated as of 8/21/20 at 118.07

Upside Overview

• XLK technical conditions remain bullish across all time-frames.
• XLK printed another new all-time high this past week at 118.07
• The current upside price structure suggests the next key short-term fib extension/resistance zones where a pullback or corrective phase may start from are 118.76-119.25 then 119.87-120.65.

Downside Overview

• XLK has a key minor support zone from 116.65-115.80
• XLK has a short-term support zone from 115.67-114.65
• XLK would likely need a close currently below 115.10 and violation of 114.30 to suggest a key short-term peak is in place and a corrective phase is likely underway. 
• Our cycle work on both the weekly and daily charts is suggesting a corrective period is due for XLK with a cycle low projected due between now and early September. 
• Although an anchor high is not in place yet, our projection/fib retracement tools, based on current pattern structure suggest a likely test of 107.85. A more aggressive corrective period over the next 3-8 weeks would likely bring a test near 100. 

XLP Weekly Chart


XLP Daily Chart

SYMBOL		LONG-TERM TREND CONDITION	LONG-TERM  MOMENTUM  (MONTHLY CHART)	INTERMEDIATE TREND CONDITION	INTERMEDIATE MOMENTUM (WEEKLY CHART)	SHORT-TERM TREND CONDITION	SHORT-TERM MOMENTUM (DAILY CHART)		Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Weekly Chart)	Projected Date & Range for Cycle Low (Daily Chart)
XLP									11/15/20 11/5-11/25/20 minor cycle 8/30/20	10/4/20 10/1-10/7/20

Technical Notes – Updated as of 8/21/20 at 64.30

Upside Overview

• XLP technical conditions are bullish across all time-frames. 
• XLP printed a new all-time last week at 64.96
• We are watching 65.25-66.27 as the next key resistance/target zone that is likely to trigger a pullback. 
• A close below 63.10 and a violation of 62.55 would likely be needed to neutralize the current short-term bullish conditions and suggest a short-term peak is in place. 

Downside Overview

• XLP has a key minor support zone from 63.45-63.08
• XLP has short-term support zone from 62.63-61.90
• XLP has key short-term support zone from 61.89-60.15