It is a fundamental truth that the inherent nature of the markets always offers the possibility that anything can happen. Risk is always present for upside and downside surprises. As traders, we should be cognizant of this fact and structure our trade planning and risk management accordingly – whether the technical evidence is clearly bullish, bearish or neutral with mixed signals. At askSlim we are bull/bear agnostic. The market messages drive our technical outlook. The information contained in the SIR Daily Snapshot is the result of a proprietary blend of trend, momentum, swing high/swing low techniques and cycle analysis. We look for alignment at multiple timeframes in the technical evidence to be able to provide the highest probability of the overall trend/pattern structure, short-term directional bias, key support & resistance levels as well as upside and downside price projections.  

S-T Directional Bias and Technical Briefings (few days to few weeks outlook):

The SPX closed down about 12 points at 5937.34

S-T Bias:
The sum of the technical evidence as of the market close suggests the SPX current short-term directional bias has been upgraded to NEUTRAL. 

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Noteworthy Updates – SPX Key Technical Overview and Recent Analytical Developments:

Choppy Overall Price Action and Near-Term Rebound Takes a Breather

• Market Behavior: Since the election, SPX price action has been extremely choppy, characterized by wide, sharp swings.
• Key Supports Reached: Monday’s gap lower tested key support (see daily and 2hr charts) and triggered buying interest
• Key Short-Term Resistance Reached: Today the SPX pushed further into the key short-term resistance zone between the short-term 50%-61.8% Fibs
• Daily Cycle Timing: Weakness and now buying interest coincided with the “ghosted” cycle’s low timing window, which also aligned with a hypothetical minor daily cycle low if added to the primary daily cycle in blue. As previously noted, it may require another couple of weeks of price action to determine which cycle re-establishes dominance which could continue to fuel choppy price action.
• Daily Cycle Low? Using the ghosted cycle as a reference, the current price action suggests that a new daily cycle low is pending and a rising phase is likely underway. 
• Short-Term Outlook _Bulls and Bears Battle for Control: The near-term rebound in the SPX expanded in a significant way yesterday. However, the daily cycle structure remains negative, leaving it vulnerable to the risk of further downside, including the possibility of new lows, unless technical conditions continue to strengthen and reduce these odds. Yesterday’s strong session pushed through and closed above the minor resistance zones keeping the door open to a further rebound at this time. Currently a violation of 5811 before a daily close above 5977 would be needed to warn the rebound is over and the bears are back in control. 

•  

Intermediate Cycle Minor or Primary Peak

• Intermediate Peak Signals: During the week of 12/16, SPX met criteria indicating an Intermediate Peak had formed or was forming.
• Posture Escalation: The shift in weekly RS to negative during the week of 12/30 escalated the posture to a warning, suggesting either a minor or primary intermediate peak has formed, keeping the risk of further declines elevated
• Technical Confirmation: Price action at the close of last week confirmed the 6099.97 high from the week of 12/2 as a minimum of a minor Intermediate Peak.

Repairing Technical Damage

• Neutralizing Technical Damage:
  • A daily close above 5977 would begin to repair the technical damage to both daily and weekly patterns.

Reestablishing a Bullish Outlook

• A push above 6032 would signal a new leg higher and warn of a shift back to bullish structures.

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Market Scenarios for the Shorter-Term: Key Levels, Projections, and Activation Triggers
This section outlines the key levels, projections, and activation triggers for the SPX, covering approximately the next 1-10 days.

Upside Scenarios

• Key Levels and Projections:
• resistance zones/levels – see charts for reference:
  • Initial Target Zone (updated 1/13): 5857-5885 (satisfied 1/14)
  • Secondary Target Zone (updated 1/14): 5895-5905 (satisfied 1/15)
  • Tertiary Target Zone (updated 1/15): 6002
• Triggers for Active, Active Underway and Re-evaluation:
  • The breakout above minor resistance and the shift in the near-term momentum conditions has triggered a tertiary projection. A shift in the 2hr RS to negative would inactivate the tertiary projection and a violation below 5811 would negate it. 

Downside Scenarios

• Key Levels and Projections:
  • Downside Projections 
    • Initial Target Zone (updated 1/6): 5947-5935 (satisfied 1/7)
    • Secondary Target Zone: (updated 1/6): 5923-5900 (satisfied 1/7)
    • Tertiary Target Zone (updated 1/7): 5807 (satisfied 1/10)
    • Extended Target Zone #1 (updated 1/10): 5800-5783 (satisfied 1/13)
    • Extended Target Zone #2 (updated 1/10): 5745
• Triggers for Active, Active Resumption and Re-evaluation:
  • The “extended” projection #2 has become inactive with the 2hr RS shifting back to positive. Currently a close back above 5978 will invalidate and remove the projection from the board. A violation below 5811 will trigger a new set of downside projections. 

The NDX closed down about 146 points at 21,091.25

To see all of the NDX Charts, Projections, Overviews, Trend Conditions, and Momentum analysis put out every trading day in our Stock Index Report (SIR) Daily Snapshot, join our Level 1 membership level today!

The RUT closed up about 3 points at 2266.79

To see all of the RUT Charts, Projections, Overviews, Trend Conditions, and Momentum analysis put out every trading day in our Stock Index Report (SIR) Daily Snapshot, join our Level 1 membership level today!

                    

2-HR Chart with Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator, Reversal Scout and Key S-T Support & Resistance Zones

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Slim’s Annotated SPX Daily Chart with additional Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator and Reversal Scout

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Slim’s Annotated SPX Weekly Chart with “Reversal Scout” 

Short-Term Upside Price Projection: see above for detailed short-term projections

Short-Term Downside Price Projection: see above for detailed short-term projections

 

askSlim Trend & Momentum Technical Evidence As of January 16, 2025 @ 3 PM CST
SPX (SPY) – S&P 500	(Short-Term) Daily Charts	(Near-Term) Intraday Charts
PATTERN STRUCTURE/ TREND CONDITION	last change 1/10/25	last change 1/16/25
SLIM RIBBON MOMENTUM CONDITION	last change 12/30/24 –daily chart	last change 1/15/25
REVERSAL “SCOUT”	last change 12/18/24	last change 1/15/25

 

 

SPX Intermediate-Term (1-2 Months) & Longer-Term (3-6 Months) Outlooks

The full SPX Intermediate-Term & Long-Term Outlooks including Price Projections, Upside/Downside Overviews, Trend Conditions, and Momentum analysis are published by 8PM CST every trading day in our premium Stock Index Report (SIR) Daily Snapshot.
Click here to sign up for a Level 1 askSlim.com membership today to see the full report!

askSlim Trend & Momentum Tracker

INDEX

L-T Trend Condition

L-T Momentum Condition

I-T Trend Condition

I-T Momentum Condition

S-T Trend Condition

S-T Momentum Condition

N-T Trend Condition

N-T Momentum Condition

MCI READING (-100 to +100), >25 =positive <-25=negative)

MCI RATE OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE

SPX

-4

+7

NDX

20

+8

RUT

-74

+6

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2hr Intraday Area Chart “Comparison” with SLIM Ribbon Momentum Indicator & MCI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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• Our use of “Near-Term” refers to the use of 2hr intraday charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last 5-7 trading days to assist with a trade set-up outlook period of the next 1-5 market sessions or so. Our use of “Short-Term” refers to the use of primarily daily charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last few to several weeks to assist with a trade set-up outlook period of the next 1-3 weeks or so. Our use of “Intermediate-Term” refers to the use of primarily weekly charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last several weeks to several months to assist with a trade set-up outlook period of the next 3-8 weeks or so. Our use of “Long-Term” refers to the use of primarily monthly charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last several months to several years to assist with position trade set-ups with an outlook period of greater than two months.