It is a fundamental truth that the inherent nature of the markets always offers the possibility that anything can happen. Risk is always present for upside and downside surprises. As traders, we should be cognizant of this fact and structure our trade planning and risk management accordingly – whether the technical evidence is clearly bullish, bearish or neutral with mixed signals. At askSlim we are bull/bear agnostic. The market messages drive our technical outlook. The information contained in the SIR Daily Snapshot is the result of a proprietary blend of trend, momentum, swing high/swing low techniques and cycle analysis. We look for alignment at multiple timeframes in the technical evidence to be able to provide the highest probability of the overall trend/pattern structure, short-term directional bias, key support & resistance levels as well as upside and downside price projections.  

S-T Directional Bias and Technical Briefings (few days to few weeks outlook):

The SPX closed up about 32 points at 6118.71

The sum of the technical evidence as of the market close suggests the SPX current short-term directional bias remains BULLISH

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Noteworthy Updates – SPX Key Technical Overview and Recent Analytical Developments:

SPX Closes at New Highs as Rising Phase Nearly Satisfies Another Key Fib Projection

• Late-Day Buying Drives New Highs: A late-day surge of buying pushed the SPX to close at a new all-time high, reaching the top end of a secondary Fib confluence projection zone—see 2hr chart for reference.
• Strength Persists Despite Near-Term Risks: The overall conditions in the SPX remain very strong, suggesting additional new highs are still likely. However, the near-term picture continues to become further extended.
• Key Zones to Monitor for a Peak: Watch the zones between 6125-6144 and 6170-6187 for signs of a near-term peak forming as the rising phase progresses. A shift in the 2hr RS would warn of a near-term peak and a likely shallow pullback. Watch the middle and lower 2hr Slim Ribbon bands for initial support when the pullback forms.
• Crucial Support Level: A daily close below 5905 would neutralize the positive pattern structure and require a re-evaluation of the overall technical picture. 
• Bullish Sentiment Reached Optimistic Levels: Last Friday the CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio reached a level only seen once last year. While this optimism suggests confidence and it is matching the current shift again back to short-term bullish conditions, it could indicate complacency is starting to enter the picture. See below chart from Stockcharts.com
  

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Market Scenarios for the Shorter-Term: Key Levels, Projections, and Activation Triggers
This section outlines the key levels, projections, and activation triggers for the SPX, covering approximately the next 1-10 days.

Upside Scenarios

• Key Levels and Projections:
• resistance zones/levels – see charts for reference:
  • Initial Target Zone (updated 1/13): 5857-5885 (satisfied 1/14)
  • Secondary Target Zone (updated 1/14): 5895-5905 (satisfied 1/15)
  • Tertiary Target Zone (updated 1/15): 6002 (satisfied 1/17) 
  • Extended Target Zone #1 (updated 1/18): 6027-6051 (satisfied 1/21)
  • Extended Target Zone #2 (updated 1/18): 6083-6125 (reached 1/22)
  • Extended Target Zone #3 (updated 1/18): 6169-6187 (active)
• Triggers for Active, Active Underway and Re-evaluation:
  • The expanded rebound in the SPX previously triggered a new set of upside projection zones. A shift in the 2hr RS to negative and the SR to neutral would inactivate these projections. 

Downside Scenarios

• Key Levels and Projections:
  • Downside Projections 
    • Initial Target Zone (updated 1/6): 5947-5935 (satisfied 1/7)
    • Secondary Target Zone: (updated 1/6): 5923-5900 (satisfied 1/7)
    • Tertiary Target Zone (updated 1/7): 5807 (satisfied 1/10)
    • Extended Target Zone #1 (updated 1/10): 5800-5783 (satisfied 1/13)
    • Extended Target Zone #2 (updated 1/10): 5745 (negated 1/17)
• Triggers for Active, Active Resumption and Re-evaluation:
  • Conditions currently misaligned – new downside projections are TBD

The NDX closed up about 48 points at 21,900.93

To see all of the NDX Charts, Projections, Overviews, Trend Conditions, and Momentum analysis put out every trading day in our Stock Index Report (SIR) Daily Snapshot, join our Level 1 membership level today!

The RUT closed up about 11 points at 2314.59

To see all of the RUT Charts, Projections, Overviews, Trend Conditions, and Momentum analysis put out every trading day in our Stock Index Report (SIR) Daily Snapshot, join our Level 1 membership level today!

                    

2-HR Chart with Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator, Reversal Scout and Key S-T Support & Resistance Zones

Like these charts? With a Level 2 askSlim membership, you can utilize our LIVE SPX charts during market hours for less than $3 per trading day! You’ll also get 24/7 access to over 150 static charts for the most popular symbols in our new “Charts Hub”. Here’s what some of our members have said about our charts…

“If you are day trading then Matt’s intraday charts are really amazing. The price levels Matt identified were perfect reaction points”- Brad B.

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“The way you guys map out the zones is unbelievable with accuracy & when the price hits those zones. I wish I had that skill WOW thanks AskSlim Crew” – Thomas R.

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Slim’s Annotated SPX Daily Chart with additional Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator and Reversal Scout

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Slim’s Annotated SPX Weekly Chart with “Reversal Scout” 

Short-Term Upside Price Projection: see above for detailed short-term projections

Short-Term Downside Price Projection: see above for detailed short-term projections

 

askSlim Trend & Momentum Technical Evidence As of January 23, 2025 @ 3 PM CST
SPX (SPY) – S&P 500	(Short-Term) Daily Charts	(Near-Term) Intraday Charts
PATTERN STRUCTURE/ TREND CONDITION	last change 1/17/25	last change 1/16/25
SLIM RIBBON MOMENTUM CONDITION	last change 1/22/25 –daily chart	last change 1/15/25
REVERSAL “SCOUT”	last change 1/17/25	last change 1/15/25

 

 

SPX Intermediate-Term (1-2 Months) & Longer-Term (3-6 Months) Outlooks

The full SPX Intermediate-Term & Long-Term Outlooks including Price Projections, Upside/Downside Overviews, Trend Conditions, and Momentum analysis are published by 8PM CST every trading day in our premium Stock Index Report (SIR) Daily Snapshot.
Click here to sign up for a Level 1 askSlim.com membership today to see the full report!

askSlim Trend & Momentum Tracker

INDEX

L-T Trend Condition

L-T Momentum Condition

I-T Trend Condition

I-T Momentum Condition

S-T Trend Condition

S-T Momentum Condition

N-T Trend Condition

N-T Momentum Condition

MCI READING (-100 to +100), >25 =positive <-25=negative)

MCI RATE OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE

SPX

64

+8

NDX

70

+12

RUT

34

+19

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2hr Intraday Area Chart “Comparison” with SLIM Ribbon Momentum Indicator & MCI

 

 

 

 

 

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• Our use of “Near-Term” refers to the use of 2hr intraday charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last 5-7 trading days to assist with a trade set-up outlook period of the next 1-5 market sessions or so. Our use of “Short-Term” refers to the use of primarily daily charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last few to several weeks to assist with a trade set-up outlook period of the next 1-3 weeks or so. Our use of “Intermediate-Term” refers to the use of primarily weekly charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last several weeks to several months to assist with a trade set-up outlook period of the next 3-8 weeks or so. Our use of “Long-Term” refers to the use of primarily monthly charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last several months to several years to assist with position trade set-ups with an outlook period of greater than two months.