It is a fundamental truth that the inherent nature of the markets always offers the possibility that anything can happen. Risk is always present for upside and downside surprises. As traders, we should be cognizant of this fact and structure our trade planning and risk management accordingly – whether the technical evidence is clearly bullish, bearish or neutral with mixed signals. At askSlim we are bull/bear agnostic. The market messages drive our technical outlook. The information contained in the SIR Daily Snapshot is the result of a proprietary blend of trend, momentum, swing high/swing low techniques and cycle analysis. We look for alignment at multiple timeframes in the technical evidence to be able to provide the highest probability of the overall trend/pattern structure, short-term directional bias, key support & resistance levels as well as upside and downside price projections.  

S-T Directional Bias and Technical Briefings (few days to few weeks outlook):

The SPX closed down about 17 points at 5983.99

• S-T Bias: The sum of the technical evidence as of the market close suggests the SPX current short-term directional bias remains BULLISH. Changes from the prior report are indicated in blue font.
• 11/12/24 Noteworthy Updates and Key Upside & Downside Price Areas to Track:
  • The analysis remains consistent with the previous report, as the SPX closed today with a small loss.
  • The results of the election news last week has introduced a couple of potential scenarios for the Intermediate Weekly Cycle Timing – see weekly chart. However, as a foundational principle, it’s essential for us as analysts to always begin with what the current technical evidence is and how it projects forward, before considering possible alternative outcomes. Right now, both the daily and weekly cycle structures and momentum conditions remain positive, supporting the likelihood of an ongoing intermediate uptrend and the upside projections will stay as the “active” tracks.This will be the higher odds path until the price action, pattern structures and indicators tell us something is changing. For the weekly chart to indicate the beginning of a late trough scenario with the downward projection track in the SPX, the following combined technical conditions would need to be met in the next 1-3 weeks. 
    • 1) A negative shift in the 2-hour Slim Ribbon
    • 2) A negative shift in the Daily Reversal Scout
    • 3) A daily close below 5852 – third band of the Slim Ribbon (this level may rise some as time passes)
  • If the SPX does not see a new low or retest of the recent daily cycle low at 5696 from 11/4 then that would strongly suggest an Intermediate low also formed at that time as well. 
  • Indicated 11/5: The next upside projections on a resumption of the Int. uptrend if the SPX sees a breakout above 5857 include:
    • Initial 5900 (reached 11/6/24)
    • Secondary 5933-5962 (satisfied 11/724)
    • Tertiary 6030-6040
  • Updated 11/9: Due to the magnitude of the post election news advance an additional set of upside projections must be considered based on current positive patterns and longer-term momentum conditions. It is in these zones to watch for potential pullbacks or peaks to form in. These include the following: 
    • Initial 6090-6118
    • Secondary 6200-6340
    • Tertiary 6405-6515
  • The SPX currently has a short-term support zone from 5890-5815
  • The SPX would currently need to see a violation below 5762 to warn of a shift the daily cycle structure back to negative and open the door to a new set of downside risk. 
  • The SPX is inside the Intermediate minor and dominant cycle low timing window which is projected to run through 12/6. 
• askSlim Methodology Review.
  • • • *Cycle Translation: The location of a cycle peak. Left-Hand Translation: Peaking before the ideal peak (tends to be bearish). Right-Hand Translation: Peaking after the ideal peak (tends to be bullish).
      • *Period of Risk: – the way it is calculated never changes – it is a window of time that includes the projected late peaking phase through the “cycle low timing window”. It is not meant to be used as a right or wrong technical data point. Its primary trade planning function is to be used as a timing reference – bringing our attention to a projected window of time where the downside risks increase due to the typical nature of money flow patterns and volatility becomes elevated as the cycle bottoming process completes and the new rising phase starts. On the other hand, what always changes, is price – meaning there is no certainty on where the price peaks and where the low forms. The “Period of Risk” is a range of time that includes the late peaking phase through the Cycle Low timing window (on the SPX Daily/Weekly Charts Slim will normally highlight this period in yellow)

The NDX closed down about 36 points at 21,070.79

To see all of the NDX Charts, Projections, Overviews, Trend Conditions, and Momentum analysis put out every trading day in our Stock Index Report (SIR) Daily Snapshot, join our Level 1 membership level today!

The RUT closed down about 43 points at 2391.85

To see all of the RUT Charts, Projections, Overviews, Trend Conditions, and Momentum analysis put out every trading day in our Stock Index Report (SIR) Daily Snapshot, join our Level 1 membership level today!

                    

2-HR Chart with Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator, Reversal Scout and Key S-T Support & Resistance Zones

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Slim’s Annotated SPX Daily Chart with additional Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator and Reversal Scout

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Slim’s Annotated SPX Weekly Chart with “Reversal Scout” 

Short-Term Upside Price Projection: 6030-6055

Short-Term Downside Price Projection: 5951-5914

 

askSlim Trend & Momentum Technical Evidence As of November 12, 2024 @ 3 PM CST
SPX (SPY) – S&P 500	(Short-Term) Daily Charts	(Near-Term) Intraday Charts
PATTERN STRUCTURE/ TREND CONDITION	last change 11/6/24	last change 11/12/24
SLIM RIBBON MOMENTUM CONDITION	last change 11/6/24 –daily chart	last change 11/6/24
REVERSAL “SCOUT”	last change 11/7/24	last change 11/12/24

 

Upside Overview:  On 11/7 the SPX satisfied the previously indicated upside projection zone from 5955-5960 (indicated on 11/6/24).  The current technicals suggest an upside price projection over the next 1-3 weeks of 6030-6055 (indicated on 11/7/24). A violation below 5750 first would require a reevaluation of the upside projections.   

Downside Overview:  On 10/31 the SPX satisfied the previously indicated downside projection of 5790-5740 (indicated on 10/25/23).  The current technicals suggest a downside price projection over the next 1-3 weeks 5951-5914 (indicated on 11/12/24). A push above 6150 first would require a reevaluation of the downside projections.

 

 

SPX Intermediate-Term (1-2 Months) & Longer-Term (3-6 Months) Outlooks

The full SPX Intermediate-Term & Long-Term Outlooks including Price Projections, Upside/Downside Overviews, Trend Conditions, and Momentum analysis are published by 8PM CST every trading day in our premium Stock Index Report (SIR) Daily Snapshot.
Click here to sign up for a Level 1 askSlim.com membership today to see the full report!

askSlim Trend & Momentum Tracker

INDEX

L-T Trend Condition

L-T Momentum Condition

I-T Trend Condition

I-T Momentum Condition

S-T Trend Condition

S-T Momentum Condition

N-T Trend Condition

N-T Momentum Condition

MCI READING (-100 to +100), >25 =positive <-25=negative)

MCI RATE OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE

SPX

90

0

NDX

91

0

RUT

97

-3

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2hr Intraday Area Chart “Comparison” with SLIM Ribbon Momentum Indicator & MCI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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• Our use of “Near-Term” refers to the use of 2hr intraday charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last 5-7 trading days to assist with a trade set-up outlook period of the next 1-5 market sessions or so. Our use of “Short-Term” refers to the use of primarily daily charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last few to several weeks to assist with a trade set-up outlook period of the next 1-3 weeks or so. Our use of “Intermediate-Term” refers to the use of primarily weekly charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last several weeks to several months to assist with a trade set-up outlook period of the next 3-8 weeks or so. Our use of “Long-Term” refers to the use of primarily monthly charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last several months to several years to assist with position trade set-ups with an outlook period of greater than two months.