It is a fundamental truth that the inherent nature of the markets always offers the possibility that anything can happen. Risk is always present for upside and downside surprises. As traders, we should be cognizant of this fact and structure our trade planning and risk management accordingly – whether the technical evidence is clearly bullish, bearish or neutral with mixed signals. At askSlim we are bull/bear agnostic. The market messages drive our technical outlook. The information contained in the SIR Daily Snapshot is the result of a proprietary blend of trend, momentum, swing high/swing low techniques and cycle analysis. We look for alignment at multiple timeframes in the technical evidence to be able to provide the highest probability of the overall trend/pattern structure, short-term directional bias, key support & resistance levels as well as upside and downside price projections.  

S-T Directional Bias and Technical Briefings (few days to few weeks outlook):

The SPX closed up about 23 points at 6074.08

S-T Bias:
The sum of the technical evidence as of the market close suggests the SPX current short-term directional bias has been upgraded to BULLISH. Changes from the prior report are indicated in blue font.

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Noteworthy Updates

Recent Technical Events and Recap:

• Last week Wednesday the SPX rallied sharply after testing the second band of the daily Slim Ribbon and the magnitude of the advance suggested a new daily cycle low formed after a very brief pullback. Since then the price action has been choppy. At this point unless the SPX prints a new lower low over the next week then the 22-bar cycle is going to remain dominant. A violation of the new short-term cycle/swing low from last Wednesday at 6029.89 would be negative to the shorter-term patterns and open the door to additional downside risk. It would likely signal the 24-bar dashed cycle has become dominant.
• Currently the SPX is sandwiched between a key short-term fib. confluence one and a minor support zone. – see 2hr chart as a reference
• The core daily and weekly intermediate analysis remains positive at this time, as key levels, momentum, and pattern structures continue to support a bullish overall outlook.

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Market Scenarios for the Shorter-Term: Key Levels, Projections, and Activation Triggers
This section outlines the key levels, projections, and activation triggers for the SPX, covering approximately the next 1-10 days.

Upside Scenarios

• Key Levels and Projections (updated 12/16): 
  • Initial Target Zone: 6120
  • Secondary Target Zone: 6142-6156
  • Tertiary Target Zone: 6172-6183
• Triggers for Active, Active Underway and Re-evaluation:
  • The above projections are “active” due to the positive intermediate and short-term price patterns
  • With the return today of the 2hr RS and SR back to positive along with a breakout above 6084 this suggested the upside projections we again “underway” and in play. 
  • Re-evaluation of the “active” status is required with a violation below 6035

Downside Scenarios

• Key Levels and Projections:
  • Minor short-term support zone: 
    • 6004-5948
  • Initial Target Zone (updated 12/12): 6048 (satisfied 12/13)
  • Secondary Target Zone (updated 12/12): 6041-6031 (reached 12/13)
  • Tertiary Target Zone (updated 12/12): 6022-6003
• Triggers for Active, Active Resumption and Re-evaluation:
  • The secondary and tertiary projections have become “inactive” with today’s shift in the 2hr RS and SR back to positive along with a breakout above 6084.
  • For these projections to become “active” again the 2hr RS and SR would need to shift back to positive along with a breakdown of 6043 before a push above 6095.

Note: For broader short-term projections, please refer to the “Short-Term Market Outlook and Analysis” section.

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Momentum, Trend and Cycle Conditions: 

• Current Daily and Weekly Trend Outlook:
  • The daily and weekly cycle structures and momentum conditions remain positive, supporting the likelihood of an ongoing intermediate uptrend and the upside projections will stay as the “active” tracks. The uptrend will be the higher odds path until the price action, pattern structures and indicators tell us something is changing.
    
• Current Cycle Timing/Phasing Outlook
  • For the weekly chart to indicate the beginning of a potential minor or primary intermediate peak, the following combined conditions must be met:
    • 1) A negative shift in the 2-hour Slim Ribbon 
    • 2) A negative shift in the Daily Reversal Scout
    • 3) Two daily closes below third band of the Slim Ribbon which is now around 6017
      
  • Last week Wednesday the SPX rallied sharply after testing the second band of the daily Slim Ribbon and the magnitude of the advance suggested a new daily cycle low formed after a very brief pullback. Since then the price action has been choppy. At this point unless the SPX prints a new lower low over the next week then the 22-bar cycle is going to remain dominant. A violation of the new short-term cycle/swing low from last Wednesday at 6029.89 would be negative to the shorter-term patterns and open the door to additional downside risk. It would likely signal the 24-bar dashed cycle has become dominant.

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• askSlim Methodology Review.
  • • • *Cycle Translation: The location of a cycle peak. Left-Hand Translation: Peaking before the ideal peak (tends to be bearish). Right-Hand Translation: Peaking after the ideal peak (tends to be bullish).
      • *Period of Risk: – the way it is calculated never changes – it is a window of time that includes the projected late peaking phase through the “cycle low timing window”. It is not meant to be used as a right or wrong technical data point. Its primary trade planning function is to be used as a timing reference – bringing our attention to a projected window of time where the downside risks increase due to the typical nature of money flow patterns and volatility becomes elevated as the cycle bottoming process completes and the new rising phase starts. On the other hand, what always changes, is price – meaning there is no certainty on where the price peaks and where the low forms. The “Period of Risk” is a range of time that includes the late peaking phase through the Cycle Low timing window (on the SPX Daily/Weekly Charts Slim will normally highlight this period in yellow)

The NDX closed up about 316 points at 22,096.66

To see all of the NDX Charts, Projections, Overviews, Trend Conditions, and Momentum analysis put out every trading day in our Stock Index Report (SIR) Daily Snapshot, join our Level 1 membership level today!

The RUT closed up about 15 points at 2361.99

To see all of the RUT Charts, Projections, Overviews, Trend Conditions, and Momentum analysis put out every trading day in our Stock Index Report (SIR) Daily Snapshot, join our Level 1 membership level today!

                    

2-HR Chart with Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator, Reversal Scout and Key S-T Support & Resistance Zones

Like these charts? With a Level 2 askSlim membership, you can utilize our LIVE SPX charts during market hours for less than $3 per trading day! You’ll also get 24/7 access to over 150 static charts for the most popular symbols in our new “Charts Hub”. Here’s what some of our members have said about our charts…

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Slim’s Annotated SPX Daily Chart with additional Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator and Reversal Scout

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Slim’s Annotated SPX Weekly Chart with “Reversal Scout” 

Short-Term Upside Price Projection: 6089-6117

Short-Term Downside Price Projection: 6053-6015

 

askSlim Trend & Momentum Technical Evidence As of December 16, 2024 @ 3 PM CST
SPX (SPY) – S&P 500	(Short-Term) Daily Charts	(Near-Term) Intraday Charts
PATTERN STRUCTURE/ TREND CONDITION	last change 11/6/24	last change 12/16/24
SLIM RIBBON MOMENTUM CONDITION	last change 11/6/24 –daily chart	last change 12/16/24
REVERSAL “SCOUT”	last change 11/7/24	last change 12/16/24

 

Upside Overview:  On 12/4 and 12/11 the SPX reached the previously indicated upside projection zone from 6089-6117 (indicated on 12/2/24). The current technicals suggest an upside price projection over the next 1-3 weeks of 6089-6117 (indicated on 12/2/24). A violation below 5981 first would require a reevaluation of the upside projections.   

Downside Overview:  On 12/9 and 12/13 the SPX reached the previously indicated downside projection of 6053-6015 (indicated on 12/5/24). The current technicals suggest a downside price projection over the next 1-3 weeks of 6053-6015 (indicated on 12/5/24). A push above 6177 first would require a reevaluation of the upside projections.   

 

   

 

 

SPX Intermediate-Term (1-2 Months) & Longer-Term (3-6 Months) Outlooks

The full SPX Intermediate-Term & Long-Term Outlooks including Price Projections, Upside/Downside Overviews, Trend Conditions, and Momentum analysis are published by 8PM CST every trading day in our premium Stock Index Report (SIR) Daily Snapshot.
Click here to sign up for a Level 1 askSlim.com membership today to see the full report!

askSlim Trend & Momentum Tracker

INDEX

L-T Trend Condition

L-T Momentum Condition

I-T Trend Condition

I-T Momentum Condition

S-T Trend Condition

S-T Momentum Condition

N-T Trend Condition

N-T Momentum Condition

MCI READING (-100 to +100), >25 =positive <-25=negative)

MCI RATE OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE

SPX

79

-12

NDX

100

0

RUT

23

-14

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2hr Intraday Area Chart “Comparison” with SLIM Ribbon Momentum Indicator & MCI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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• Our use of “Near-Term” refers to the use of 2hr intraday charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last 5-7 trading days to assist with a trade set-up outlook period of the next 1-5 market sessions or so. Our use of “Short-Term” refers to the use of primarily daily charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last few to several weeks to assist with a trade set-up outlook period of the next 1-3 weeks or so. Our use of “Intermediate-Term” refers to the use of primarily weekly charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last several weeks to several months to assist with a trade set-up outlook period of the next 3-8 weeks or so. Our use of “Long-Term” refers to the use of primarily monthly charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last several months to several years to assist with position trade set-ups with an outlook period of greater than two months.