It is a fundamental truth that the inherent nature of the markets always offers the possibility that anything can happen. Risk is always present for upside and downside surprises. As traders, we should be cognizant of this fact and structure our trade planning and risk management accordingly – whether the technical evidence is clearly bullish, bearish or neutral with mixed signals. At askSlim we are bull/bear agnostic. The market messages drive our technical outlook. The information contained in the SIR Daily Snapshot is the result of a proprietary blend of trend, momentum, swing high/swing low techniques and cycle analysis. We look for alignment at multiple timeframes in the technical evidence to be able to provide the highest probability of the overall trend/pattern structure, short-term directional bias, key support & resistance levels as well as upside and downside price projections.  

S-T Directional Bias and Technical Briefings (few days to few weeks outlook):

The SPX closed down about 5 points at 5867.08

S-T Bias:
The sum of the technical evidence as of the market close suggests the SPX current short-term directional bias remains SLIGHTLY BEARISH. Changes from the prior report are indicated in blue font.

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Noteworthy Updates

Recent Technical Events and Recap:

• Yesterday, the SPX experienced a decline of nearly 200 points for the SPX which occurred post FOMC announcement. This price action has altered the short-term pattern structure and turned the daily RS momentum conditions negative. Notably, this marked the largest single-day decline since the March 2020 pandemic panic.
• What is now more evident is the influence of the 24-bar cycle, as the SPX’s decline aligns with the cycle low timing window, which extends through the 24th. It may take another daily cycle or two before a clear, single dominant cycle emerges as both cycles have shown meaningful influence. Note, the 22-bar cycle suggests the SPX suffered a left-hand translation. Both daily cycles currently have negative structures at this point.
• Currently, in order to indicate a new daily/short-term minor cycle low is pending – the SPX would need to see the 2hr RS shift positive and a push above 5935.52. A violation of today’s low at 5866.07 without a push above 5935.52. would suggest the SPX remains in the minor daily cycle declining/bottoming process. 
• It is important to note that the SPX has met the initial criteria that is “cautioning” an Intermediate Peak has formed or is forming. A shift in the weekly RS to negative would move the (fill in the blank) to a “warning” that an Int. minor or primary Peak has formed. 
• Currently, the SPX needs to see a close back above 6012 to begin repair and neutralize the short-term technical damage. 
• Currently, the intermediate and short-term patterns are in conflict. While the weekly pattern structure remains positive for now, the short-term daily pattern has shifted to a negative posture.

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Market Scenarios for the Shorter-Term: Key Levels, Projections, and Activation Triggers
This section outlines the key levels, projections, and activation triggers for the SPX, covering approximately the next 1-10 days.

Upside Scenarios

• Key Levels and Projections (updated 12/18): 
  • Initial Target Zone:  Conditions Misaligned – TBD
  • Secondary Target Zone:  Conditions Misaligned – TBD
  • Tertiary Target Zone:  Conditions Misaligned – TBD
• Triggers for Active, Active Underway and Re-evaluation:
  • Additional market data and proper alignment of conditions is required to indicate new projections.

Downside Scenarios

• Key Levels and Projections:
  • support zones/levels – see charts for reference:
  • Initial Target Zone (updated 12/12): 6048 (satisfied 12/13 and 12/17)
  • Secondary Target Zone (updated 12/12): 6041-6031 (satisfied 12/18)
  • Tertiary Target Zone (updated 12/12): 6022-6003 (satisfied 12/18)
  • Downside Projections (updated 12/18)
    • Initial Target Zone: 5849-5831
    • Secondary Target Zone: 5789
    • Tertiary Target Zone: *5764-5736 
• Triggers for Active, Active Resumption and Re-evaluation:
  • The SPX satisfied the projections updated on 12/12
  • The current technical conditions suggest the new set of initial and secondary projections are “active” and “underway.” The tertiary projection will become activated with a weekly close below 5849 or the weekly RS shifting negative.

Note: For broader short-term projections, please refer to the “Short-Term Market Outlook and Analysis” section.

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Momentum, Trend and Cycle Conditions: 

• Current Daily and Weekly Trend Outlook:
  • Currently, the intermediate and short-term patterns are in conflict. While the weekly pattern structure remains positive for now, the short-term daily pattern has shifted to a negative posture.
• Current Cycle Timing/Phasing Outlook
  • For the weekly chart to indicate the beginning of a potential minor or primary intermediate peak, the following combined conditions must be met:
    • 1) A negative shift in the 2-hour Slim Ribbon (occurred 12/18)
    • 2) A negative shift in the Daily Reversal Scout (occurred 12/18)
    • 3) Two daily closes below third band of the Slim Ribbon which around 6020 (the second close occurred today)
      
  • The SPX’s decline aligns with the 24-bar cycle’s low timing window, extending through the 24th, highlighting the influence of both the 24-bar and 22-bar cycles. The 22-bar cycle suggests a left-hand translation, with both cycles currently exhibiting negative structures. The SPX has also met initial criteria “cautioning” that an Intermediate Peak may be forming. A shift in the weekly RS to negative could escalate this to a “warning” of a minor or primary Intermediate Peak.
    

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• askSlim Methodology Review.
  • • • *Cycle Translation: The location of a cycle peak. Left-Hand Translation: Peaking before the ideal peak (tends to be bearish). Right-Hand Translation: Peaking after the ideal peak (tends to be bullish).
      • *Period of Risk: – the way it is calculated never changes – it is a window of time that includes the projected late peaking phase through the “cycle low timing window”. It is not meant to be used as a right or wrong technical data point. Its primary trade planning function is to be used as a timing reference – bringing our attention to a projected window of time where the downside risks increase due to the typical nature of money flow patterns and volatility becomes elevated as the cycle bottoming process completes and the new rising phase starts. On the other hand, what always changes, is price – meaning there is no certainty on where the price peaks and where the low forms. The “Period of Risk” is a range of time that includes the late peaking phase through the Cycle Low timing window (on the SPX Daily/Weekly Charts Slim will normally highlight this period in yellow)

The NDX closed down about 99 points at 21,110.51

To see all of the NDX Charts, Projections, Overviews, Trend Conditions, and Momentum analysis put out every trading day in our Stock Index Report (SIR) Daily Snapshot, join our Level 1 membership level today!

The RUT closed down about 10 points at 2221.49

To see all of the RUT Charts, Projections, Overviews, Trend Conditions, and Momentum analysis put out every trading day in our Stock Index Report (SIR) Daily Snapshot, join our Level 1 membership level today!

                    

2-HR Chart with Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator, Reversal Scout and Key S-T Support & Resistance Zones

Like these charts? With a Level 2 askSlim membership, you can utilize our LIVE SPX charts during market hours for less than $3 per trading day! You’ll also get 24/7 access to over 150 static charts for the most popular symbols in our new “Charts Hub”. Here’s what some of our members have said about our charts…

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Slim’s Annotated SPX Daily Chart with additional Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator and Reversal Scout

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Slim’s Annotated SPX Weekly Chart with “Reversal Scout” 

Short-Term Upside Price Projection: more market data needed

Short-Term Downside Price Projection: 6053-6015

 

askSlim Trend & Momentum Technical Evidence As of December 19, 2024 @ 3 PM CST
SPX (SPY) – S&P 500	(Short-Term) Daily Charts	(Near-Term) Intraday Charts
PATTERN STRUCTURE/ TREND CONDITION	last change 12/18/24	last change 12/17/24
SLIM RIBBON MOMENTUM CONDITION	last change 12/18/24 –daily chart	last change 12/17/24
REVERSAL “SCOUT”	last change 12/18/24	last change 12/17/24

 

Upside Overview:  On 12/4 and 12/11 the SPX reached the previously indicated upside projection zone from 6089-6117 (indicated on 12/2/24). The 12/18 violation below 5981 first requires a reevaluation of the upside projections.   

Downside Overview:  Today SPX satisfied the previously indicated downside projection of 6053-6015 (indicated on 12/5/24). The current technicals suggest a downside price projection over the next 1-3 weeks of 5831-5790 (indicated on 12/18/24). A close above 6012 first would require a reevaluation of the upside projections.   

   

 

 

 

SPX Intermediate-Term (1-2 Months) & Longer-Term (3-6 Months) Outlooks

The full SPX Intermediate-Term & Long-Term Outlooks including Price Projections, Upside/Downside Overviews, Trend Conditions, and Momentum analysis are published by 8PM CST every trading day in our premium Stock Index Report (SIR) Daily Snapshot.
Click here to sign up for a Level 1 askSlim.com membership today to see the full report!

askSlim Trend & Momentum Tracker

INDEX

L-T Trend Condition

L-T Momentum Condition

I-T Trend Condition

I-T Momentum Condition

S-T Trend Condition

S-T Momentum Condition

N-T Trend Condition

N-T Momentum Condition

MCI READING (-100 to +100), >25 =positive <-25=negative)

MCI RATE OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE

SPX

41

-19

NDX

77

-12

RUT

-56

-68

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2hr Intraday Area Chart “Comparison” with SLIM Ribbon Momentum Indicator & MCI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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• Our use of “Near-Term” refers to the use of 2hr intraday charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last 5-7 trading days to assist with a trade set-up outlook period of the next 1-5 market sessions or so. Our use of “Short-Term” refers to the use of primarily daily charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last few to several weeks to assist with a trade set-up outlook period of the next 1-3 weeks or so. Our use of “Intermediate-Term” refers to the use of primarily weekly charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last several weeks to several months to assist with a trade set-up outlook period of the next 3-8 weeks or so. Our use of “Long-Term” refers to the use of primarily monthly charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last several months to several years to assist with position trade set-ups with an outlook period of greater than two months.