It is a fundamental truth that the inherent nature of the markets always offers the possibility that anything can happen. Risk is always present for upside and downside surprises. As traders, we should be cognizant of this fact and structure our trade planning and risk management accordingly – whether the technical evidence is clearly bullish, bearish or neutral with mixed signals. At askSlim we are bull/bear agnostic. The market messages drive our technical outlook. The information contained in the SIR Daily Snapshot is the result of a proprietary blend of trend, momentum, swing high/swing low techniques and cycle analysis. We look for alignment at multiple timeframes in the technical evidence to be able to provide the highest probability of the overall trend/pattern structure, short-term directional bias, key support & resistance levels as well as upside and downside price projections.  

S-T Directional Bias and Technical Briefings (few days to few weeks outlook):

The SPX closed down about 64 points at 5906.94

S-T Bias:
The sum of the technical evidence as of the market close suggests the SPX current short-term directional bias has been upgraded to NEUTRAL. Changes from the prior report are indicated in blue font.

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Noteworthy Updates

SPX Key Technical Overview and Recent Analytical Developments:

• The SPX established a new daily cycle low on 12/20 at 5832.3.
• The price action in the SPX since the election has become extremely choppy with very large swings. 
• Today’s decline has caused technical damage to the short-term daily cycle structure, signaling a negative shift and leaving the SPX vulnerable to further weakness. This includes the potential for a cycle breakdown, which could result in a left-hand translation. A close back above 6000 would be needed to begin to repair the technical damage and neutralize the negative cycle structure warning. 
• During the week of 12/16, the SPX met the initial criteria that cautioned an Intermediate Peak has formed or is forming. Today’s shift in the weekly RS to negative escalates the posture to a warning that an intermediate minor or primary peak has formed, increasing the risk of further declines. Note, a breakout above 6046 would negate the warning, and a return of the daily RS to positive would indicate a new leg higher.
• Currently, the intermediate and short-term patterns are in conflict. While the weekly pattern structure remains positive for now, the short-term daily pattern leans more neutral with slightly bearish momentum. The bottom line: the battle between the bulls and bears for the next meaningful leg of price action continues.

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Market Scenarios for the Shorter-Term: Key Levels, Projections, and Activation Triggers
This section outlines the key levels, projections, and activation triggers for the SPX, covering approximately the next 1-10 days.

Upside Scenarios

• Key Levels and Projections (updated 12/30):
• resistance zones/levels – see charts for reference:
  • Initial Target Zone:  Conditions Misaligned – TBD
  • Secondary Target Zone: Conditions Misaligned – TBD
• Triggers for Active, Active Underway and Re-evaluation:
  • A shift in the 2-hr RS back to positive along with a close above 6000 is needed to activate a new set of upside projections.

Downside Scenarios

• Key Levels and Projections:
  • Downside Projections (updated 12/29)
    • Initial Target Zone: 5886-5878 (satisfied 12/30)
    • Secondary Target Zone: 5841
    • Tertiary Target Zone: 5783-5764
• Triggers for Active, Active Resumption and Re-evaluation:
  • The secondary and tertiary downside projections are “active” and “underway.”
  • A shift in the 2-hr RS to positive would remove “underway” status and a close above 6000 with the daily RS shifting positive would negate these projections

The NDX closed down about 276 points at 21,197.09

To see all of the NDX Charts, Projections, Overviews, Trend Conditions, and Momentum analysis put out every trading day in our Stock Index Report (SIR) Daily Snapshot, join our Level 1 membership level today!

The RUT closed down about 17 points at 2227.78

To see all of the RUT Charts, Projections, Overviews, Trend Conditions, and Momentum analysis put out every trading day in our Stock Index Report (SIR) Daily Snapshot, join our Level 1 membership level today!

                    

2-HR Chart with Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator, Reversal Scout and Key S-T Support & Resistance Zones

Like these charts? With a Level 2 askSlim membership, you can utilize our LIVE SPX charts during market hours for less than $3 per trading day! You’ll also get 24/7 access to over 150 static charts for the most popular symbols in our new “Charts Hub”. Here’s what some of our members have said about our charts…

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Slim’s Annotated SPX Daily Chart with additional Slim Ribbon Momentum Indicator and Reversal Scout

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Slim’s Annotated SPX Weekly Chart with “Reversal Scout” 

Short-Term Upside Price Projection: see above for detailed short-term projections

Short-Term Downside Price Projection: see above for detailed short-term projections

 

askSlim Trend & Momentum Technical Evidence As of December 30, 2024 @ 3 PM CST
SPX (SPY) – S&P 500	(Short-Term) Daily Charts	(Near-Term) Intraday Charts
PATTERN STRUCTURE/ TREND CONDITION	last change 12/18/24	last change 12/30/24
SLIM RIBBON MOMENTUM CONDITION	last change 12/30/24 –daily chart	last change 12/17/24
REVERSAL “SCOUT”	last change 12/18/24	last change 12/27/24

 

 

SPX Intermediate-Term (1-2 Months) & Longer-Term (3-6 Months) Outlooks

The full SPX Intermediate-Term & Long-Term Outlooks including Price Projections, Upside/Downside Overviews, Trend Conditions, and Momentum analysis are published by 8PM CST every trading day in our premium Stock Index Report (SIR) Daily Snapshot.
Click here to sign up for a Level 1 askSlim.com membership today to see the full report!

askSlim Trend & Momentum Tracker

INDEX

L-T Trend Condition

L-T Momentum Condition

I-T Trend Condition

I-T Momentum Condition

S-T Trend Condition

S-T Momentum Condition

N-T Trend Condition

N-T Momentum Condition

MCI READING (-100 to +100), >25 =positive <-25=negative)

MCI RATE OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE

SPX

-2

-20

NDX

48

-18

RUT

-21

-7

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2hr Intraday Area Chart “Comparison” with SLIM Ribbon Momentum Indicator & MCI

 

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• Our use of “Near-Term” refers to the use of 2hr intraday charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last 5-7 trading days to assist with a trade set-up outlook period of the next 1-5 market sessions or so. Our use of “Short-Term” refers to the use of primarily daily charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last few to several weeks to assist with a trade set-up outlook period of the next 1-3 weeks or so. Our use of “Intermediate-Term” refers to the use of primarily weekly charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last several weeks to several months to assist with a trade set-up outlook period of the next 3-8 weeks or so. Our use of “Long-Term” refers to the use of primarily monthly charts and other analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last several months to several years to assist with position trade set-ups with an outlook period of greater than two months.