Stock Index – Cycle & Trend Momentum Report (6/21/18) 1.8 (SAMPLE)

Intended Production Frequency: A new post each Thursday and on Sunday or Monday morning if price action warrants a complete update. The askSlim Trend Momentum Condition Tracker along with Key Support/Resistance Levels are likely to be updated more often – either before or after the market closes when meaningful price changes occur.

The following is our analysis of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 stock market indexes. The analysis and supporting data is designed to complement swing traders, options traders with holding times lasting several days to several weeks along with position traders with holding times lasting a few months to several months.

Here’s an overview of what’s included below:

Three Charts per Stock Index 

• Weekly Chart Annotated with Slim’s Cycle Analysis, Timing and Projections
• Daily Chart with Annotated with Slim’s Cycle Analysis, Timing, Projections
• Daily Chart overlayed with the Slim Ribbon Trend Momentum indicator reflected on an Area Chart

Two Data “Insight” Tables

• Multiple Timeframe Analysis Recap
• askSlim Trend Momentum Condition Tracker

• Using a proprietary blend of chart indicators, the below tracker, is designed to provide insight into the condition of trend momentum at various time frames. NOTE: changes in the momentum conditions reflected in the tracker are not buy/sell signals or recommendations.
• Chart Color/Icon Key
  • Green/Bull  suggests current price action is reflecting a positive momentum condition.
  • Red/Bear  suggests current price action is reflecting a negative momentum condition.
  • Purple “area” suggests current price action is reflecting a neutral momentum condition.
• For example if you are position trader or longer term swing trader with typical holdings times around several weeks to a few months and you use trend momentum as a directional guide – you might use the Weekly Chart Condition as a directional bias.
• For example if you are swing trader with typical holdings times around a few weeks to several weeks and you use trend momentum as a directional guide – you might use the Daily Chart Condition as a directional bias.
• For example if you are short term swing trader with typical holdings times around a few days to a few weeks and you use trend momentum as a directional guide – you might use the 2hr Chart Condition as a directional bias.
• askSlim Market Condition Indicator (MCI)
  • The askSlim MCI is proprietary indicator that functions as an oscillator combining information from multiple timeframes. The MCI provides us with an internal market condition reading and is most useful to supporting traders with shorter term trading styles and holding periods .
  • We will use the MCI in our tracker below to primarily compare the short term relative strength of the Stock Indexes and to support our feel for the dominant conditions whether positive or negative of the Stock Indexes.
  • There are several ways to read this indicator. Here’s an overview video that discusses many of those: https://askslim.com/mci-training/
    • NOTE: Level 4 members get a complete look at the MCI script and can add it to their live charts on Thinkorswim platform.
      • The askSlim MCI is a copyrighted study. It is illegal to share it without permission.

1Month Daily Area Chart “Comparison” with the SLIM Ribbon Trend Momentum Indicator – UPDATED 6/20/18

2hr Intraday Area Chart “Comparison” with SLIM Ribbon Trend Momentum Indicator & MCI – UPDATED 6/20/18

askSlim Annotated – SPX DAILY CHART 

SPX 3M Daily Area Chart with the SLIM Ribbon Trend Momentum Indicator 

SPX “Big Picture” Long-Term Overview: Our monthly trend momentum analysis work suggests the SPX Monthly Dominant Condition is Bullish. This condition suggests prices have a higher probability of reaching new highs and the weekly high of 2872 on 1/26/18 was not the termination point for the long-term uptrend. No change as of 6/20/18.

SPX Weekly Cycle and Phase: Our analysis suggests the SPX Weekly Cycle (which started in early February projects out through around mid-July) is very late in the peaking phase.  At this juncture penetrating and closing below 2735 would suggest the SPX is entering the declining phase and then bottoming phase of the weekly cycle. A modest pullback would likely bring the SPX to 2725-2700. A more aggressive declining and bottoming phasing process would likely see the SPX test 2650-2625.

A close above 2802 would shift the SPX’s overall weekly cycle configuration to positive. A positive weekly configuration would suggest that the SPX during the next weekly cycle is likely to eclipse the high of this current weekly cycle. Updated 6/20/18

SPX Daily Cycle and Phase:  Our current SPX daily cycle analysis work suggests the SPX continues to be strongly influenced by the NDX and RUT daily cycles. We are watching for the SPX in the next several days to peak and rollover into the declining phase of the daily cycle. Updated 6/20/18

SPX Support/Resistance “Alert” Zones – UPDATED 6/20/18
Resistance Zones:
Unlike the NDX and RUT the SPX is dealing with multiple layers of previous price level resistance. We are watching 2775-2783 as a near-term resistance zone. A breakout above 2775-2783 should quickly bring a test of our current weekly cycle high of 2791 (June 13). Above 2791 opens the door to key intermediate resistance at 2802-2810.  A push above this resistance zone near would suggest an upside breakout attempt is underway to challenge the January 2018 highs (2840-2872).

Support Zones:
Currently we are watching 2763-2751 as a near-term support zone. A break of this near-term support zone would suggest a retest of a key minor support zone at 2747-2733.

askSlim Annotated – NDX WEEKLY CHART –

askSlim Annotated  – NDX DAILY CHART

NDX 3M Daily Area Chart with the SLIM Ribbon Trend Momentum Indicator

NDX “Big Picture” Long-Term Overview: The NDX set another all-time high today (6/20/18) at 7309.99. Our long-term monthly trend momentum analysis work indicates the NDX Dominant Condition is Bullish. This condition suggests the NDX has a high probability of continuing to reach new highs. Updated 6/20/18.

NDX Current Weekly Cycle and Phase: Our weekly cycle work suggests the NDX is in a peaking phase within a positive configuration.  The NDX has rallied over 1,000 points from the April low and has printed a higher high 7 out of the last 8 weeks. The current weekly cycle low date range is projected for mid-June to mid-July. Updated 6/20/18.

NDX Current Daily Cycle and Phase: Our current daily cycle analysis work suggests the NDX is in the later stages of its rising phase. We are watching, based on the dominant and minor daily cycles, for the NDX to peak over the next several days. The current daily cycle low is projected due 7/12-7/19. Updated 6/20/18.

NDX Support/Resistance “Alert” Zones – UPDATED 6/20/18
Resistance Zones:
With no price level resistance beyond today’s new all-time high at 7309.99 – we continue to look to our Fib extension and projection tools to help establish the next possible resistance zones. We are watching 7325-7390 then 7430-7450 as key Fib extension/projection resistance zones.

Support Zones:
We are currently watching 7250-7200 as a near-term support level. A break of near-term support would suggest a test of a short-term minor support zone from 7138-7100. A break of minor support suggests a test of 7015-6965.

askSlim Annotated – RUT WEEKLY CHART

askSlim Annotated – RUT DAILY CHART 

RUT 3M Daily Area Chart with the SLIM Ribbon Trend Momentum Indicator 

RUT “Big Picture” Long-Term Overview: The RUT set another new all-time high today (6/20/18) at 1708.10. Our long-term monthly trend momentum analysis work indicates the RUT Dominant Condition is Bullish. This condition suggests the RUT has a higher probability of continuing to reach new highs.  Updated 6/20/18.

RUT Current Weekly Cycle and Phase:  The RUT has been incredibly strong pulling together a string of eight consecutive weeks of higher highs. Our weekly cycle work is suggesting the the RUT is likely to peak within the next week or two.  Updated 6/20/18.

RUT Daily Cycle and Phase Overview: Our current daily cycle analysis work suggests the RUT is in the very late stages of the rising phase. We are watching closely for near-term market messages indicating we are entering the corrective phases of the daily cycle.  The daily cycle low is projected due 7/12-7/19. Updated 6/20/18.

RUT Support/Resistance “Alert” Zones – UPDATED 6/20/18:

Resistance Zones: 
The RUT once again is in blue sky territory.We are watching near 1725 as a likely Fib extension/projection resistance level that could serve as a reversal area.

Support Zones:
We are currently watching 1698-1688 as a near-term support level. A break of near-term support would suggest a test of a short-term support zone from 1672-1660.