Stock Index – Cycle & Trend Momentum Report v1.2 – (5/3/18) Sample

Intended Production Frequency: A new post each Thursday and on Sunday or Monday morning if price action warrants an update. The askSlim Trend Momentum Condition Tracker along with Key Support/Resistance Levels are likely to be updated more often when meaningful price changes occur. NOTE: This is meant to be a base-level product, priced below our current products, and at the same time, included with all other premium member levels.

The following is our analysis of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 stock market indexes. The analysis and supporting data is designed to complement swing traders, options traders with holding times lasting several days to several weeks along with position traders with holding times lasting a few months to several months.

Here’s an overview of what’s included below:

Three Charts per Stock Index 

• Weekly Chart Annotated with Slim’s Cycle Analysis, Timing and Projections
• Daily Chart with Annotated with Slim’s Cycle Analysis, Timing, Projections
• Daily Chart overlayed with the Slim Ribbon Trend Momentum indicator reflected on an Area Chart

Two Data “Insight” Tables

• Multiple Timeframe Analysis Recap
• askSlim Trend Momentum Condition Tracker

* denotes a change from the previous edition/update

• Using a proprietary blend of chart indicators, the below tracker, is designed to provide insight into the condition of trend momentum at various time frames.
  • For example if you are position trader or longer term swing trader with typical holdings times around several weeks to a few months and you use trend momentum as a directional guide – you might use the Weekly Chart Condition as a directional bias.
  • For example if you are swing trader with typical holdings times around a few weeks to several weeks and you use trend momentum as a directional guide – you might use the Daily Chart Condition as a directional bias.
  • For example if you are short term swing trader with typical holdings times around a few days to a few weeks and you use trend momentum as a directional guide – you might use the 2hr Chart Condition as a directional bias.
• Chart Color Key
  • Green “area” indicates current price action is reflecting a positive momentum condition.
  • Red “area” indicates current price action is reflecting a negative momentum condition.
  • Purple “area” indicates current price action is reflecting a neutral momentum condition.
• askSlim Market Condition Indicator (MCI)
  • The askSlim MCI is proprietary indicator that functions as an oscillator combining information from multiple timeframes. The MCI provides us with an internal market condition reading and is most useful to supporting traders with shorter term trading styles and holding periods .
  • We will use the MCI in our tracker below to primarily compare the short term relative strength of the Stock Indexes and to support our feel for the dominant conditions whether positive or negative of the Stock Indexes.
  • There are several ways to read this indicator. Here’s an overview video that discusses many of those: https://askslim.com/mci-training/
    • NOTE: Level 4 members get a complete look at the MCI script and can add it to their live charts on Thinkorswim platform.
      • The askSlim MCI is a copyrighted study. It is illegal to share it without permission.

* denotes a change from the previous edition/update

2M Daily Area Chart “Comparison” with the SLIM Ribbon Trend Momentum Indicator – UPDATED 5/2/18

2hr Intraday Area Chart “Comparison” with SLIM Ribbon Trend Momentum Indicator & MCI – UPDATED 5/2/18

askSlim Annotated – SPX WEEKLY CHART – UPDATED 5/2/18

askSlim Annotated – SPX DAILY CHART – UPDATED 5/2/18

SPX 6M Daily Area Chart with the SLIM Ribbon Trend Momentum Indicator – UPDATED 5/2/18

SPX “Big Picture” Long-Term Overview: Our monthly trend momentum analysis work suggests the SPX Monthly Dominant Condition is Bullish. This condition suggests prices have a higher probability of reaching new highs and the weekly high of 2872 on 1/26/18 was not the termination point for the long-term uptrend. No change as of 5/2/18.

SPX Weekly Cycle and Phase: Our analysis suggests the SPX Weekly Cycle continues to be in a declining phase within a negative configuration. 

The current weekly market messages, as depicted on the chart, are carving out an interesting triangular shape pattern that is likely to translate into one of two significant outcomes. The bullish scenario would would play out where prices finish this weekly cycle or set a bottom during the daily cycle low with a shallow correction – holding above/near the dashed red rising VTL (Valid Trend Line) from 2575 to near 2600 and then sharply rally to challenge or set new all-time highs. The bearish scenario of this pattern, which is still the higher probability outcome, suggests that we get aggressive selling pressure in the SPX and it breaks the VTL. With this break we see a test of the April and February lows and possibly not finding support until near the 2465 level. This corrective phase projects to a cycle low date range in early June to early July. Updated 5/2/18.

SPX Daily Cycle and Phase:  Our current SPX daily cycle analysis work suggests the SPX is in a declining phase within a negative cycle configuration. The negative configuration was triggered with the break of the 3/19 VTL (Valid Trend Line) and the violation of the previous cycle low triggered by the January 2018 decline. On the daily chart we are watching the declining VTL (dashed green line) for bullish signals. A breakout and hold above would tell us that there is more room to rally in the minor daily cycle rising phase. The dominant daily cycle is projecting to a low due  5/16-5/23. Updated 5/2/18.

SPX Support/Resistance “Alert” Zones – Updated 5/2/18
Resistance Zones:
The 2652-2676 near-term minor resistance zone held prices in check over the last week. We are watching the declining VTL (dashed green line) on the daily chart as a possible short term resistance/breakout zone that runs from down from 2685 – 2665.

If the SPX pushes through short term resistance we are looking for 2695 – 2705 as the next resistance zone.  On the top end we see 2745 to likely contain a rally attempt during the the current daily cycle phase.

Support Zones:
The SPX had a bounce off of the support zone holding above last week’s low near 2615. The SPX has now re-entered this support area. With a break of this support zone we should see an aggressive move lower near 2588. Breaking below 2588 would suggest the 4/2 low of 2553 and 2/9 low at 2532 are likely to be tested.

SPX Notes:  Without a sustained violation of the long-term monthly trendline, currently near 2120, along with a change in our monthly trend momentum indicators, our Bullish Dominant Monthly Condition will remain intact.  A push above the resistance zone near 2810 would suggest an upside breakout attempt is underway to challenge the January highs. Updated 5/2/18.

askSlim Annotated  – NDX DAILY CHART – UPDATED 5/2/18

NDX 6M Daily Area Chart with the SLIM Ribbon Trend Momentum Indicator – UPDATED 5/2/18

NDX “Big Picture” Long-Term Overview: Our monthly trend momentum analysis work suggests the NDX Dominant Condition is Bullish. This suggests the condition exists for prices to have a higher probability of reaching new highs and the weekly high of 7186.09 on 3/12/18 was not the termination point for the long-term uptrend. No change as of 5/2/18.

NDX Current Weekly Cycle and Phase: Our work suggests the NDX Weekly Cycle continues to be in a declining phase within a negative configuration. Our weekly momentum indicator has been negative for eight weeks. These current market messages are suggesting we are in a period of higher risk of downside pressure until this weekly cycle ends or the NDX delivers new bullish messages. This corrective phase projects to a cycle low date range in late June to late July. Updated 5/2/18.

NDX Current Daily Cycle and Phase: Our current daily cycle analysis work suggests the NDX is in a peaking cycle phase within a neutral configuration.

On the daily chart we are watching the declining VTL (dashed green line) for bullish signals. A breakout and hold above would warn us that there is more room to rally and the risk for an aggressive move lower is lessening. An important daily cycle low is projecting out to 5/17-5/24. Updated 5/2/18.

NDX Support/Resistance “Alert” Zones – Updated 5/2/18:
Resistance Zones:
The NDX failed last week to hold a push through the minor resistance zone at 6590-6694.  A push back above this resistance zone should see the NDX quickly test 6765.  6860 which represents the 61.8% Fib Retracement of the anchor points of the Mar 13, 2018 high at 7189 and the Apr 2 low at 6323 would be the next key resistance area on a continued rally.

Support Zones:
Last week’s low of 6426 (4/25/18) has held as key near term support. A break of 6426 will likely open the door to an aggressive move to test the lows from 4/2 and 2/9 6323–6165.

NDX NOTE: Without a sustained violation of the long-term monthly trendline, currently near 4585, along with a change in our monthly trend momentum indicators, our Bullish Dominant Monthly Condition will remain intact. Updated 5/2/18.

askSlim Annotated – RUT DAILY CHART – UPDATED 5/2/18

RUT 6M Daily Area Chart with the SLIM Ribbon Trend Momentum Indicator – UPDATED 5/2/18

RUT “Big Picture” Long-Term Overview: Our monthly trend momentum analysis work suggests the RUT Dominant Condition is Bullish. This suggests the condition exists for prices to have a higher probability of reaching new highs and the weekly high of 1615.52 on 1/24/18 was not the termination point for the long-term uptrend. No change as of 5/2/18.

RUT Current Weekly Cycle and Phase:  The RUT relatively speaking, continues to be the strongest of the three indexes. It is currently the only index of the three that is exhibiting positive weekly trend momentum. Our cycle work suggests the RUT Weekly Cycle is still in a declining phase within a negative configuration. Until the RUT provides us with new messages – there is a lower probability of the RUT making new all-time highs during this weekly cycle phase. This corrective weekly cycle phase projects to a cycle low date range in late mid June to mid July.  Updated 5/2/18.

RUT Daily Cycle and Phase Overview: Our current daily cycle analysis work suggests the RUT is in a declining phase within a positive cycle configuration. The positive configuration was triggered with a push above the 1580 level on 4/18.  A daily cycle low is projecting out to 5/16-5/23. Updated 5/2/18.

RUT Support/Resistance “Alert” Zones – Updated 5/2/18:
Resistance Zones: 
We are watching 1568-1578 as a minor resistance zone that is like to be tested if we take out today’s (5/2/18) high of 1565.37.
1592 would be the next resistance area to watch on a sustained rally. If surpassed expect the all-time highs near 1615 to be challenged.
Updated 5/2/18.

Support Zones:
The 1540-1524 support zone from last week held. On a breakdown of this support zone expect the April lows ranging from 1502 -1483 to be swiftly tested. Updated 5/2/18.

RUT NOTE: Without a sustained violation of the long-term monthly trendline, currently near 1135, along with a change in our monthly trend momentum indicators, our Bullish Dominant Monthly Condition will remain intact. Updated 5/2/18.