Stock Index – Cycle & Trend Momentum Report – SAMPLE

Intended Production Frequency: A new post each Thursday and on Sunday or Monday morning if price action warrants an update. The askSlim Trend Momentum Condition Tracker along with Key Support/Resistance Levels are likely to be updated more often when meaningful price changes occur. NOTE: This is meant to be a base-level product, priced below our current products, and at the same time, included with all other premium member levels.

The following is our analysis of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 stock market indexes. The analysis and supporting data is designed to complement swing traders, options traders with holding times lasting several days to several weeks along with position traders with holding times lasting a few months to several months.

Here’s an overview of what’s included below:

Three Charts per Stock Index 

• Weekly Chart Annotated with Slim’s Cycle Analysis, Timing and Projections
• Daily Chart with Annotated with Slim’s Cycle Analysis, Timing, Projections
• Daily Chart overlayed with the Slim Ribbon Trend Momentum indicator reflected on an Area Chart

Two Data “Insight” Tables

• Multiple Timeframe Analysis Recap
• askSlim Trend Momentum Condition Tracker

• Using a proprietary blend of chart indicators, the below tracker, is designed to provide insight into the condition of trend momentum at various time frames.
  • For example if you are position trader or longer term swing trader with typical holdings times around several weeks to a few months and you use trend momentum as a directional guide – you might use the Weekly Chart Condition as a directional bias.
  • For example if you are swing trader with typical holdings times around a few weeks to several weeks and you use trend momentum as a directional guide – you might use the Daily Chart Condition as a directional bias.
  • For example if you are short term swing trader with typical holdings times around a few days to a few weeks and you use trend momentum as a directional guide – you might use the 2hr Chart Condition as a directional bias.
• Chart Color Key
  • Green “area” indicates current price action is reflecting a positive momentum condition.
  • Red “area” indicates current price action is reflecting a negative momentum condition.
  • Purple “area” indicates current price action is reflecting a neutral momentum condition.
• askSlim Market Condition Indicator (MCI)
  • The askSlim MCI is proprietary indicator that functions as an oscillator combining information from multiple timeframes. The MCI provides us with an internal market condition reading and is most useful to supporting traders with shorter term trading styles and holding periods .
  • We will use the MCI in our tracker below to primarily compare the short term relative strength of the Stock Indexes and to support our feel for the dominant conditions whether positive or negative of the Stock Indexes.
  • There are several ways to read this indicator. Here’s an overview video that discusses many of those: https://askslim.com/mci-training/
    • NOTE: Level 4 members get a complete look at the MCI script and can add it to their live charts on Thinkorswim platform.
      • The askSlim MCI is a copyrighted study. It is illegal to share it without permission.

2M Daily Area Chart “Comparison” with the SLIM Ribbon Trend Momentum Indicator – UPDATED 5/10/18

2hr Intraday Area Chart “Comparison” with SLIM Ribbon Trend Momentum Indicator & MCI – UPDATED 5/10/18

askSlim Annotated – SPX WEEKLY CHART – UPDATED 5/10/18

askSlim Annotated – SPX DAILY CHART – UPDATED 5/10/18

SPX 6M Daily Area Chart with the SLIM Ribbon Trend Momentum Indicator – UPDATED 5/10/18

SPX “Big Picture” Long-Term Overview: Our monthly trend momentum analysis work suggests the SPX Monthly Dominant Condition is Bullish. This condition suggests prices have a higher probability of reaching new highs and the weekly high of 2872 on 1/26/18 was not the termination point for the long-term uptrend. No change as of 5/10/18.

SPX Weekly Cycle and Phase: Our analysis suggests the SPX Weekly Cycle continues to be in a declining phase within a negative configuration. For this negative weekly configuration to change the SPX would need to break out above the VTL – Valid Trend Line (dashed green line) which is now near 2720 and the 3/13 high near the 2800 level.  It is worth noting that the SPX weekly momentum indicator we follow has turned positive.

The SPX price action on the weekly chart continues to be contained within the symmetrical triangular pattern that we highlighted last week. As we mentioned – it is likely to translate into one of two significant outcomes during this weekly cycle. The bullish scenario would would play out where prices finish this weekly cycle or set a bottom during the daily cycle low with a shallow correction – holding above/near the red dashed rising VTL (Valid Trend Line) from 2575 to about 2600 and rallies earlier than expected. The bearish scenario of this weekly cycle pattern, which is still at this point the higher probability outcome, suggests that the SPX breaks the red dashed VTL and aggressive selling pressure resumes. With a break we would look for a test of the April and February lows and possibly not finding support until near the 2465 level. This corrective phase projects to a cycle low date range in early June to early July where we then anticipate to resume the long-term dominant uptrend that is still in play. Updated 5/10/18.

SPX Daily Cycle and Phase:  Our current SPX daily cycle analysis work suggests the SPX has shifted into a rising phase within a positive cycle configuration. The positive configuration was triggered with the recent breakout over the last few sessions above the green dashed VTL. The dominant daily cycle, which is reflected by the light grey cycle brackets on the daily chart, is projecting to a low due in the range of 6/8-6/15. Updated 5/10/18.

SPX Support/Resistance “Alert” Zones – Updated 5/10/18
Resistance Zones:
The SPX pushed through the green dashed VTL on the daily chart and the minor resistance/breakout zone that was indicated from 2665-2685.

The next key short term resistance of zone for the SPX is 2705 –2717 (4/18 high).  A breakout should see the SPX test the 2745-2765 intermediate resistance zone. This area to likely contain the rally attempt during this current daily cycle phase.

Support Zones:
The SPX broke short term support at 2615 last week made an aggressive move lower near the indicated support zone around 2590. A low was formed on May 3 at 2594. Breaking below 2594 would suggest the 4/2 low of 2553 and 2/9 low at 2532 are likely to be tested. In the near-term we are watching 2674-2655 as a minor support zone.

SPX Notes:  Without a sustained violation of the long-term monthly trendline, currently near 2120, along with a change in our monthly trend momentum indicators, our Bullish Dominant Monthly Condition will remain intact.  A push above the resistance zone near 2810 would suggest an upside breakout attempt is underway to challenge the January highs. Updated 5/10/18.

askSlim Annotated – NDX WEEKLY CHART – UPDATED Updated 5/10/18

askSlim Annotated  – NDX DAILY CHART – UPDATED 5/10/18

NDX 6M Daily Area Chart with the SLIM Ribbon Trend Momentum Indicator – UPDATED 5/10/18

NDX “Big Picture” Long-Term Overview: Our monthly trend momentum analysis work suggests the NDX Dominant Condition is Bullish. This suggests the condition exists for prices to have a higher probability of reaching new highs and the weekly high of 7186.09 on 3/12/18 was not the termination point for the long-term uptrend. No change as of 5/10/18.

NDX Current Weekly Cycle and Phase: Our work suggests the NDX Weekly Cycle continues to be in a declining phase within a negative weekly configuration, however, the NDX is obviously delivering some bullish messages. For this negative weekly configuration to shift to positive – the NDX would need to breakout above 7000. Our weekly momentum indicator is also now flashing positive. We are still in a period of higher risk until this weekly cycle ends. This corrective phase projects to a cycle low date range in late June to late July. Updated 5/10/18.

NDX Current Daily Cycle and Phase: Our current daily cycle analysis work suggests the NDX is in a peaking cycle phase within a positive configuration. The positive daily cycle configuration was triggered by a breakout above the green dashed VTL on the daily chart. The daily cycle low is projecting out to 5/17-5/24. Updated 5/10/18.

NDX Support/Resistance “Alert” Zones – Updated 5/10/18:
Resistance Zones:
The NDX pushed through multiple layers of resistance over the last week. We are now watching 6949-7000 as the next key resistance zone.

Support Zones:
In the near-term we are watching 6807-6770 as a minor support zone.

NDX NOTE: Without a sustained violation of the long-term monthly trendline, currently near 4585, along with a change in our monthly trend momentum indicators, our Bullish Dominant Monthly Condition will remain intact. Updated 5/10/18.

askSlim Annotated – RUT WEEKLY CHART – UPDATED 5/10/18

askSlim Annotated – RUT DAILY CHART – UPDATED 5/10/18

RUT 6M Daily Area Chart with the SLIM Ribbon Trend Momentum Indicator – UPDATED 5/10/18

RUT “Big Picture” Long-Term Overview: Our monthly trend momentum analysis work suggests the RUT Dominant Condition is Bullish. This suggests the condition exists for prices to have a higher probability of reaching new highs and the weekly high of 1615.52 on 1/24/18 was not the termination point for the long-term uptrend. No change as of 5/10/18.

RUT Current Weekly Cycle and Phase:  Our weekly cycle work suggests the RUT is in a declining phase within a neutral configuration. The RUT has provided us with new bullish messages this week when it exceeded the 4/18 high at 1592.04. To shift this weekly cycle configuration positive the RUT would need to clear the 3/13 high of 1609. This corrective weekly cycle phase projects to a cycle low date range in mid June to mid July.  Updated 5/10/18.

RUT Daily Cycle and Phase Overview: Our current daily cycle analysis work suggests the RUT is in a peaking phase within a positive cycle configuration. The positive configuration was confirmed with a breakout above the green dashed VTL.  A daily cycle low is projecting out to 5/16-5/23. Updated 5/10/18.

RUT Support/Resistance “Alert” Zones – Updated 5/10/18:
Resistance Zones: 
The RUT has also pushed through multiple layers of resistance over the last week. Today’s high (5/9) 1598.76 and the high from (3/13) 1609 are all that stand in the way of the RUT challenging its all-time high at 1615.52. Updated 5/10/18.

Support Zones:
In the near-term we are watching 1584-1577 as a minor support zone. Updated 5/10/18.

RUT NOTE: Without a sustained violation of the long-term monthly trendline, currently near 1135, along with a change in our monthly trend momentum indicators, our Bullish Dominant Monthly Condition will remain intact. Updated 5/10/18.