Hello, askSlim members!

Below is a full update to the Stock Index Report (SIR) as of 1/2/20. Comments and questions can be posted below. Enjoy!

SPX – (SPY)
Slim's Annotated SPX Charts

askSlim Annotated – SPX WEEKLY CHART

askSlim Annotated –SPX DAILY CHART 

SPX (SPY) Technical Summary

SPX Price: 3241
SPY Price: 323.20
Analysis as of: 1/2/20 11:30 AM CST 

 

SPX TECHNICAL SUMMARY: 

The current positive weekly cycle configurations continue to suggest pullbacks will be within the context of an intermediate rising phase, which are expected to hold the key short-term support zones which currently run from 3160-3138. The breakout above 3137 on 12/6/19 suggested the next wave higher was underway. Daily and weekly momentum continues to be very strong and has helped the SPX to push through a major intermediate-term Fib extension/target zone that ran from 3190-3220. We are now watching a couple major long-term Fib extension/target zones where short-term and intermediate highs may form in. These run from 3260-3284 then from 3307-3335. 

 

For the bears to regain control of the short-term we would likely need to see a daily close in SPX below 3138 and a break below 3108. A close below key intermediate support at 3000 would likely suggest the intermediate bullish condition has neutralized and require us to reevaluate the overall bullish intermediate outlook.

 

Our cycle work is projecting some increased downside risk over the next week which favors a pullback to again test the minor (currently from 3214-3202) and possibly the upper-end of the short-term support zones (currently from 3181-3160). If this pullback doesn’t occur within that projected timing then it is likely the low was made on 12/3019 which is slightly earlier than expected. We will watch how this plays out over the next week and update if necessary. Our cycle work is also currently projecting a higher increased downside risk that tests and potentially breaks the key rising short-term support zones as as we extend into the later part of January through February.

 

We continue to keep a close eye on the price action’s impact on the technical conditions at multiple time frames.

SPX (SPY) Short-Term Outlook (1-3 Weeks)

Short-Term Upside Price Projection:                 3260-3275 (325.50-327)

Short-Term Downside Price Projection:            3200-3170 (319.50-316.50)

 

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few Days to Few Weeks

*SPX
as of 1/2/20
(Short-Term)
Few Weeks
(Near-Term)
Few  Days – Several Days
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION


Upside Overview:
  The SPX reached the lower-end of the price projections indicated in the previous report. An advance in the short-term, based on the current technical conditions, is likely to bring the SPX to 3260-3275. A continued aggressive upside move may bring the SPX to challenge 3285.

 

Downside Overview: The current technicals suggest, in the short-term, the SPX tests 3200-3170 (indicated 12/26/19). A more aggressive decline could see the SPX test 3160.

SPX (SPY) Intermediate-Term Outlook (1-2 Months)


Intermediate-Term Upside Price Projection:                      3280-3305 (327.50-330)
Intermediate-Term Downside Price Projection:                 3110-3063 (310.50-305.75)

 

  *Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few to Several Weeks

*SPX
as of 1/2/20
(Intermediate-Term)
several weeks
(Short-Term)
few weeks
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION


Upside Overview:
An advance in the intermediate-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the SPX to 3280-3305.  

 

Downside Overview: The downside projection, based on the current technical conditions, over the next 1-2 months is 3110-3063 (adjusted 12/19/19). A more aggressive decline if an intermediate chart breakdown occurs is likely to see the SPX test 30132990. 

 

SPX (SPY) Longer-Term Outlook (3-6 Months)

Longer-Term Upside Price Projection:                     3280-3335 (327.50-333)
Longer-Term Downside Price Projection:                3028-2972 (302.25-296.75)

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Several Weeks to Several Months

*SPX
as of 1/2/20 close
(Longer-Term)
several months
(Intermediate-Term)
several weeks
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION

Upside Overview: An advance in the longer-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the SPX to 3280-3335 . NOTE: This longer-term projection will need to be reevaluated if the SPX closes below 2885.

Downside Overview: The current technicals suggest a downside price projection over the next 3-6 months of 30282972 (adjusted 11/27/19). A more aggressive decline if an intermediate breakdown occurs is likely to see the SPX test 2916-2836

 


NDX – (QQQ)
Slim's Annotated NDX Charts

askSlim Annotated – NDX WEEKLY CHART

askSlim Annotated  – NDX DAILY CHART

NDX (QQQ) Technical Summary


NDX Price: 8820
QQQ Price: 214.85

Analysis as of: 1/2/20 11:30 AM CST 

 

NDX OVERALL TECHNICAL SUMMARY:

 

Upside Overview:

  • Like the SPX the current positive weekly cycle configurations in the NDX continue to suggest pullbacks will be within the context of an intermediate rising phase, which are expected to hold the key rising short-term support zones which currently run from 8579-8420. Risks increase for a break of the rising short-term support zones as we extend into the later part of January through Feb 2020.
  • The breakout above 8387 on 12/6 suggested the next wave higher was underway. 
  • Over the past few weeks,supported by very strong unwavering momentum, the NDX has continued to exceed previous key fib intermediate target/resistance zones.The next set of fib extension target/resistance zones are projected from 8862-8895, then 8962-8980. Currently, it is in these levels we are watching for a potential short-term and then possible intermediate top to likely form. We will need to see a negative shift in short-term momentum and trend before we have any indication of tops forming. 

Downside Overview:

  • The NDX has a minor support zone from 8665-8622
  • The NDX has a short-term support level near 8579, then a key s-t support zone from 8518-8420
  • For the bears to regain control of the short-term we would likely need to see a daily close in NDX below 8420 and a break below 8282
  • A close below key intermediate support at 7988 would likely suggest the intermediate bullish condition has neutralized and require us to reevaluate the overall bullish intermediate outlook.
  • Our cycle analysis on the daily chart is still suggesting an increase for some downside risk over the next several sessions as a dominant daily cycle low is projected around 1/6/20-1/10/20. If this pullback doesn’t occur within that projected timing then it is likely the low was made 12/3019 which is slightly earlier than expected. We will watch how this plays out over the next week and update if necessary.  

NDX (QQQ) Short-Term Outlook (1-3 Weeks)

Short-Term Upside Price Projection:                8850-8895 (215.75-216.75)

Short-Term Downside Price Projection:           8625-8530 (210.25-207.50)

 

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few Days to Few Weeks

*NDX
as of 1/2/20 
(Short-Term)
Few Weeks
(Near-Term)
Few  Days – Several Days
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION


Upside Overview: The NDX reached the price projections indicated in the previous report. An advance in the short-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the NDX to 8850-8895.

 

Downside Overview: The current technicals suggest, in the short-term, the NDX tests 8625-8530 (updated 12/26/19).

 

NDX (QQQ) Intermediate-Term Outlook (1-2 Months)


NDX (QQQ) INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK (1-2 MONTHS)

Intermediate-Term Upside Price Projection:                     8885-8977 (216.75-218.75)
Intermediate-Term Downside Price Projection:                8490-8285 (207-201.85)

 

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few to Several Weeks

NDX
as of 1/2/20
(Intermediate-Term)
several weeks
(Short-Term)
few weeks
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION


Upside Overview:
The NDX reached the price projections indicated in the previous report. Advance in the intermediate-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the NDX to 8885-8977

 

Downside Overview: The NDX reached the downside price projections indicated in the last report. The intermediate downside price projection over the next 1-2 months is 8490-8285 (updated 12/26/19).

NDX (QQQ) Longer-Term Outlook (3-6 Months)

NDX (QQQ) LONGER-TERM OUTLOOK (3-6 MONTHS)

Longer-Term Upside Price Projection:                     8885-9250 (216.65-225.50)
Longer-Term Downside Price Projection:                8195-7975 (199.75-194.25)

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Several Weeks to Several Months

NDX
as of 1/2/20
(Longer-Term)
several months
(Intermediate-Term)
several weeks
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION

 

Upside Overview: The longer-term price projection for the NDX based on the current technicals is 8885-9250

 

Downside Overview: The longer-term price projection for the NDX based on the current technicals is 8195-7975 (adjusted 12/26/19).


RUT – (IWM)
Slim's Annotated RUT Charts


askSlim Annotated – RUT WEEKLY CHART

askSlim Annotated  – RUT DAILY CHART

RUT (IWM) Technical Summary

RUT Price: 1656.02
IWM Price: 164.65

Analysis as of: 1/2/20 11:30 AM CST 

 

RUT TECHNICAL SUMMARY: 

 

Upside Overview:

    • The RUT demonstrated a key breakout above multiple cycle peak resistance levels on 11/25/19
    • The breakout above 1626 on 12/6/19 suggested the next wave higher was underway. 
    • The close above 1642 on 12/16/19 suggested the RUT challenges 1690-1700 – a major intermediate-term fib extension – which is currently projected by our cycle work to occur late January or early February. 
    • The RUT failed to breakout of the top-end of key I-T Fib Ext Resistance/Target Zone from 1676-1690 on its first attempt. 
    • A breakout above 1680 will likely bring a swift challenge of the next S-T Resistance/Target Zone of 1690-1705. 

Downside Overview:

  • The RUT has a minor support level near 1647
  • The RUT has a key short-term support zone from 1635-1625
  • For the bears to regain control of the short-term we would likely need to see a daily close in the RUT below 1620 and a break below 1602.
  • A close below key intermediate support at 1539 would likely suggest the intermediate bullish condition has neutralized and require us to reevaluate the overall bullish intermediate outlook.

RUT (IWM) Short-Term Outlook (1-3 Weeks)

Short-Term Upside Price Projection:                1684-1692 (167.50-168.50)
Short-Term Downside Price Projection:           1646-1632 (163.75-162.25)

 

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few Days to Few Weeks

*RUT
as of 1/2/20 
(Short-Term)
Few Weeks
(Near-Term)
Few  Days – Several Days
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION
 

Upside Overview: The RUT reached the price projections indicated in the previous report. An advance in the short-term, based on the current technical conditions, is likely to bring the RUT to 1684-1692. 

 

Downside Overview: The current technicals suggest, in the short-term, the RUT tests 1646-1632 (updated 12/26/19). A more aggressive decline, if one was to develop in the short-term, is likely to see the RUT test near 1626.

RUT (IWM) Intermediate-Term Outlook (1-2 Months)

Intermediate-Term Upside Price Projection:                     1690-1730 (168-172.25)
Intermediate-Term Downside Price Projection:                1640-1605 (163.25-164)

 

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few to Several Weeks

 

RUT
as of 1/2/20
(Intermediate-Term)
several weeks
(Short-Term)
few weeks
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION

 

Upside Overview: An advance in the intermediate-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the RUT to 1690-1730. A more aggressive upside projection, based on current technicals would suggest a test near 1765

 

Downside Overview: The intermediate downside price projection over the next 1-2 months is 1640-1605 (updated 12/26/19).

 

 

RUT (IWM) Longer-Term Outlook (3-6 Months)

Longer-Term Upside Price Projection:                     1690-1740 (168-173)

Longer-Term Downside Price Projection:                1540-1500 (153.25-149.25)

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Several Weeks to Several Months

 

*RUT
as of 1/2/19
(Longer-Term)
several months
(Intermediate-Term)
several weeks
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION


Upside Overview:
Based on the current technical evidence, the upside price projection for the longer-term is 1690-1740 (adjusted 11/27/19). A more aggressive upside projection, based on current technicals would suggest a test of 1765-1820.

Downside Overview: The downside price projection for the the next 3-6 months is 1540-1500 (adjusted 11/20/19). The downside projection will likely need to be re-evaluated with a close above 1740

 



TECHNICAL EVIDENCE SUMMARY

Momentum Tracker & Charts


1 Month Daily Area Chart “Comparison” with the SLIM Ribbon Momentum Indicator

 


2hr Intraday Area Chart “Comparison” with SLIM Ribbon Momentum Indicator & MCI 

askSlim Cycle Analysis Tracker

Support/Resistance Alert Zones

SPX –  Support/Resistance “Alert” Zones 

SPX – (SPY)
RESISTANCE ZONES

SUPPORT ZONES
MINOR & SHORT-TERM 3250.04 3207-3200,
3181,
3160-3138
INTERMEDIATE none at this time 3100-3050,
3004
MAJOR & LONG-TERM **3260-3284**
**3307-3335**
3050-2990,
2929

*ALL-TIME HIGH
**FIB LEVEL



NDX  – Support/Resistance “Alert” Zones 

NDX 
RESISTANCE ZONES

SUPPORT ZONES
MINOR & SHORT-TERM
none at this time 8665-8622,
8579,
8518-8420
INTERMEDIATE none at this time 8309-7988
MAJOR & LONG-TERM 8746**- 8877**
8103,
7881-7659

*ALL-TIME HIGH
**FIB LEVEL



RUT  – Support/Resistance “Alert” Zones

 

RUT 
RESISTANCE ZONES

SUPPORT ZONES
MINOR & SHORT-TERM 1668-1679
1647,
1635-1625
INTERMEDIATE none at this time 1590,
1566-1539
MAJOR & LONG-TERM 1700-1713,
1742.09* 

1750**-1790**
1850-1900** 
1523-1474
1425

 

*ALL-TIME HIGH
**FIB LEVEL


NOTE: The analysis presented in the Stock Index Report (SIR) is purely technical in nature. The foundational components of our technical work includes proprietary trend, momentum and cycle studies. Our trend and momentum indicators are formulaic and nearly 100% objective and are designed to provide bullish, bearish or neutral “readings” on any security or index at multiple timeframes. Our cycle work is an art as much as it is a science and it is the most forward looking of the three primary technical components. The highest probability directional outlooks are when we have “alignment” in our primary technical conditions (trend, momentum and cycle) and at multiple timeframes.

Our use of “Near-Term” refers to the use of 2hr intraday charts and other trend analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last 5-7 trading days. Our use of “Short-Term” refers to the use of primarily daily charts and other trend analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last few to several weeks. Our use of “Intermediate-Term” refers to the use of primarily weekly charts and other trend analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last several weeks to several months.

HELPFUL TIPS:

  • The SIR is designed to provide an analytical framework that supports the development of a trading plan for the three indexes and a proxy for the “health” of overall market direction. We use a proprietary blend of trend and momentum indicators along with Slim’s cycle analysis with the purpose of forecasting potential price objectives both on the upside and downside at multiple timeframes.
  • Click on the “down” arrow in front of each section to expand the content and click on the “up” arrow to collapse the content.
  • Click on each chart and table image for the full-size render.
  • New to Slim’s Charts? Click the following link to learn more. Slim’s Chart Training
  • Click on the following link to learn more about Slim’s Trend Momentum Tracking Tool

Trend Momentum Condition Tracker Overview

  • Using a proprietary blend of chart indicators our Trend Momentum Tracker is designed to provide insight into the condition of trend momentum at various time frames. NOTE: changes in the momentum conditions reflected in the tracker are not buy/sell signals or recommendations. Click on the following link to learn more about Slim’s Trend Momentum Tracking Tools
  • Chart Color/Icon Key
    • Green/Bull  suggests current price action is reflecting a positive momentum condition.
    • Red/Bear  suggests current price action is reflecting a negative momentum condition.
    • Purple Sideways Arrows suggest current price action is reflecting a neutral momentum condition.
  • askSlim Market Condition Indicator (MCI)
    • The askSlim MCI is proprietary indicator that functions as an oscillator combining information from multiple timeframes. The MCI provides us with an internal market condition reading and is most useful to supporting traders with shorter term trading styles and holding periods .
    • We will use the MCI in our tracker below to primarily compare the short term relative strength of the Stock Indexes and to support our feel for the dominant conditions whether positive or negative of the Stock Indexes.
        • The askSlim MCI is a copyrighted study. It is illegal to share it without permission.


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