Hello, askSlim members!

Below is a full update to the Stock Index Report (SIR) Weekly Outlook as of 1/20/21. Comments and questions can be posted below. Enjoy!

SPX – (SPY)
Slim's Annotated SPX Charts

askSlim Annotated – SPX WEEKLY CHART

askSlim Annotated –SPX DAILY CHART

SPX (SPY) Technical Summary

SPX Price: 3851.85
SPY Price: 383.89
Analysis as of: 1/20/21

 

SPX TECHNICAL NOTES:

 

Upside Overview: 

  • The SPX established new ATH today at 3859.75
  • The SPX short-term cycle pattern structures, momentum and trend indicators remain overall positive – continuing to leave the door open new highs in the short-term
  • The SPX intermediate-term cycle pattern structures, momentum and trend indicators remain overall positive – continuing to leave the door open new highs in the intermediate-term. 
  • Until the current bullish cycle structure breaks down, key downside levels are breached and momentum and trend confirm the shift – key support zones are more likely to defend against deeper declines and upside risks to test or break out above prior rally highs remain the higher odds. In other words the uptrend will remain intact. 
  • The SPX has a key intermediate fib ext/resistance zone from 3869-3937
  • The SPX has a key long-term fib ext/resistance zone from 4001-4076

 

Downside Overview:

  • Currently a close below 3790 (warning) and a violation of 3772 (confirmation) would likely be needed to require a reevaluation of the bullish short-term pattern
  • A violation of the daily cycle low from 1/15/21 at 3749.62 would shift the daily cycle structure negative and suggest a short-term high is likely in place.
  • Currently a close below 3471 (warning) and a violation of 3366 (confirmation) would likely be needed to require an reevaluation of the bullish intermediate pattern
  • Currently the SPX has a short-term rising support zone from 3781-3737 and a key short-term rising support zone from 3736-3704

 

Cycle Analysis Overview: For an in depth review of the current short-term and intermediate cycle analysis check out today’s FutureSpeak show. Index analysis starts around the 43 minute mark. https://askslim.com/futurespeak-01-20-21/

 

SPX (SPY) Short-Term Outlook (1-3 Weeks)

Short-Term Upside Price Projection:                3879-3891 (387.25-388.50)

Short-Term Downside Price Projection:          3697-3665 (369-366)

 

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few Days to Few Weeks

*SPX @3851.85
as of 1/20/21
@Market Close
(Short-Term)
daily charts
(Near-Term)
intraday charts
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION


Upside Overview:
The SPX reached the price projections previously indicated. An advance in the short-term is likely to bring the SPX to 3879-3891 (indicated 1/20/21).  A violation below 3772 would require reevaluation of the upside projections. 

 

Downside Overview: The current technicals suggest, in the short-term, the SPX tests 3697-3665 (adjusted 1/6/20). A close above 3865 would require reevaluation of the downside projections.

SPX (SPY) Intermediate-Term Outlook (1-2 Months)


Intermediate-Term Upside Price Projection:                      3891-3913 (388.50-390.56)
Intermediate-Term Downside Price Projection:                3660-3578 (365.29-357.10)

 

  *Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few to Several Weeks

*SPX @3851.85
as of 1/20/21
@Market Close
(Intermediate-Term)
weekly charts
(Short-Term)
daily charts
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION


Upside Overview:
The SPX reached the price projections previously indicated. An advance in the intermediate-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the SPX to 3891-3913 (indicated 1/20/21).  A violation below 3704 would require reevaluation of the upside projections.

 

Downside Overview: The downside projection, based on the current technical conditions, over the next 1-2 months is 3660-3578 (adjusted 1/13/21). A close above 3928 would require reevaluation of the downside projections.

SPX (SPY) Longer-Term Outlook (3-6 Months)

Longer-Term Upside Price Projection:                       3998-4074 (399.15-406.75)
Longer-Term Downside Price Projection:                 3580-3488 (357.50-348.15)

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Several Weeks to Several Months

*SPX @3851.85
as of 1/20/21
@Market Close
(Longer-Term)
monthly charts
(Intermediate-Term)
weekly charts
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION

Upside Overview: The SPX reached the price projections previously indicated. An advance in the longer-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the SPX to 3998-4074 (indicated 1/20/21).  A close below 3467 would require reevaluation of the upside levels.

 

Downside Overview: The downside projection, based on the current technical conditions, over the next 3-6 months is 3580-3488 (adjusted 1/20/21). A close above 3928 would require a reevaluation of the downside projections. 


NDX – (QQQ)
Slim's Annotated NDX Charts

askSlim Annotated – NDX WEEKLY CHART

askSlim Annotated –NDX DAILY CHART

NDX (QQQ) Technical Summary


NDX Price: 13,296.45
QQQ Price: 323.77

Analysis as of: 1/20/20 

 

NDX TECHNICAL NOTES:

 

Upside Overview:

  • The NDX established new ATH today at 13,332.26
  • The NDX short-term cycle pattern structures, momentum and trend indicators remain overall positive – continuing to leave the door open new highs in the short-term
  • The NDX intermediate-term cycle pattern structures, momentum and trend indicators remain overall positive – continuing to leave the door open new highs in the intermediate-term. 
  • Until the current bullish cycle structure breaks down, key downside levels are breached and momentum and trend confirm the shift – key support zones are more likely to defend against deeper declines and upside risks to test or break out above prior rally highs remain the higher odds. In other words the uptrend will remain intact. 
  • The NDX closed today in key intermediate fib ext/resistance zone from 13,151-13,317. This is an area we were watching to trigger a short-term pullback. 
  • If the NDX doesn’t begin a reversal/pull back near current levels then we are watching the following major short-term fib ext/resistance zone to generate significant selling pressure and trigger a short-term pullback or correction. 
  • The NDX has a new major short-term fib ext/resistance zone from 13,455-13,705

Downside Overview:

  • Currently the NDX has a new minor support zone from 13,111-12,977 and a key minor support zone from 12,976-12,876
  • Currently a close below 12,977 (warning) and a violation of 12,880 (confirmation) would likely be needed to require a reevaluation of the bullish short-term pattern.
  • A violation of the daily cycle low from 1/15/21 at 12,758 would shift the daily cycle structure negative and suggest a short-term high is likely in place.
  • Currently the NDX has a new key short-term support zone from 12,849-12,702
  • Currently a close below 11,866 (warning) and a violation of 11,466 (confirmation) would likely be needed to require an reevaluation of the bullish intermediate pattern

NDX (QQQ) Short-Term Outlook (1-3 Weeks)

Short-Term Upside Price Projection:                13,360-13,406 (325.50-326.75)

Short-Term Downside Price Projection:           13,111-12,985 (319.50-316.50)

 

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few Days to Few Weeks

*NDX@ 13,296.45
as of 1/20/21
@Market Close
(Short-Term)
daily charts
(Near-Term)
intraday charts
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION


Upside Overview:  The NDX reached the price projections previously indicated. An advance in the short-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the NDX to 13,360-13,406 (indicated 1/20/21). A violation below 12,975 would require reevaluation of the upside projections.

 

Downside Overview: The current technicals suggest, in the short-term, the NDX tests 13,111-12,985 (adjusted 1/20/21). A close above 13,371 would require a reevaluation of the downside projections. 

 

NDX (QQQ) Intermediate-Term Outlook (1-2 Months)


NDX (QQQ) INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK (1-2 MONTHS)

Intermediate-Term Upside Price Projection:                    13,459-13,665 (328-333)
Intermediate-Term Downside Price Projection:               12,439-12,156 (303-296.25)

 

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few to Several Weeks

*NDX@ 13,296.45
as of 1/20/21
@Market Close
(Intermediate-Term)
weekly charts
(Short-Term)
daily charts
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION


Upside Overview:
The NDX reached the price projections previously indicated. An advance in the intermediate-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the NDX to 13,459-13,375 (indicated 1/20/21). A close below 12,758 would require reevaluation of the upside projections.

 

Downside Overview: The current technicals suggest the NDX tests 12,439-12,156 (adjusted 1/13/21). A close above 13,356 would require a reevaluation of the downside projections. 

NDX (QQQ) Longer-Term Outlook (3-6 Months)

NDX (QQQ) LONGER-TERM OUTLOOK (3-6 MONTHS)

Longer-Term Upside Price Projection:                    13,645-14,050 (332.50-342.50)
Longer-Term Downside Price Projection:               12,155-11,501 (296.25-280.25)

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Several Weeks to Several Months

*NDX@ 13,296.45
as of 1/20/21
@Market Close
(Longer-Term)
monthly charts
(Intermediate-Term)
weekly charts
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION

 

Upside Overview: The NDX reached the low-end of the price projections previously indicated. The longer-term price projection for the NDX based on the current technicals is 13,300-13,447 (indicated 1/20/21). A violation below 12,583 would reduce the odds of reaching the upside projections and require reevaluation of the upside levels.

 

Downside Overview: The current technicals suggest a downside price projection over the next 3-6 months of 12,155-11,501 (adjusted 1/13/21).  A close above 13,345 would require a reevaluation of the downside projections


RUT – (IWM)
Slim's Annotated RUT Charts


askSlim Annotated – RUT WEEKLY CHART

askSlim Annotated –RUT DAILY CHART

RUT (IWM) Technical Summary

RUT Price: 2160.62
IWM Price: 214.39

Analysis as of: 1/20/21  

 

RUT TECHNICAL SUMMARY: 

 

Upside Overview:

  • The RUT established a new ATH today at 2173.73
  • The RUT short-term cycle pattern structures, momentum and trend indicators remain overall positive – continuing to leave the door open new highs in the short-term
  • The RUT intermediate-term cycle pattern structures, momentum and trend indicators remain overall positive – continuing to leave the door open new highs in the intermediate-term. 
  • Until the current bullish cycle structure breaks down, key downside levels are breached and momentum and trend confirm the shift – key support zones are more likely to defend against deeper declines and upside risks to test or break out above prior rally highs remain the higher odds. In other words the uptrend will remain intact. 
  • The RUT has a key intermediate fib ext/resistance zone from 2177-2209. This is an area we were watching to trigger a short-term pullback. 

Downside Overview:

  • Currently the RUT has a key minor support zone from 2116-2077
  • Currently a close below 2021 (warning) and a violation of 1979 (confirmation) would likely be needed to require a reevaluation of the bullish short-term pattern.
  • A violation of the daily cycle low from 1/4/21 at 1927.15 would shift the daily cycle structure negative and suggest a short-term high is likely in place.
  • Currently the RUT has a new key short-term support zone from 2050-1979
  • Currently a close below 1774 (warning) and a violation of 1665 (confirmation) would likely be needed to require an reevaluation of the bullish intermediate pattern

RUT (IWM) Short-Term Outlook (1-3 Weeks)

Short-Term Upside Price Projection:                 2177-2209 (216.50-219.75)
Short-Term Downside Price Projection:           2100-2065 (209-205.50)

 

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few Days to Few Weeks

*RUT@2160.62
as of 1/20/20
@Market Close
(Short-Term)
daily charts
(Near-Term)
intraday charts
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION

Upside Overview: The RUT reached the price projections previously indicated. An advance in the short-term, based on the current technical conditions, is likely to bring the RUT to 2177-2209 (indicated 1/20/21). A close below 2060 would require reevaluation of the upside projections.

 

Downside Overview: The current technicals suggest the RUT tests 2100-2065 (adjusted 1/20/21). A close above 2205 would require reevaluation of the downside projections

RUT (IWM) Intermediate-Term Outlook (1-2 Months)

Intermediate-Term Upside Price Projection:                     2177-2210 (216.50-219.75)
Intermediate-Term Downside Price Projection:                1893-1805 (188.25-179.50)

 

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few to Several Weeks

 

*RUT@2160.62
as of 1/20/20
@Market Close
(Intermediate-Term)
weekly charts
(Short-Term)
daily charts
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION

 

Upside Overview: The RUT reached the price projections previously indicated. An advance in the intermediate-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the RUT to 2177-2210 (indicated 1/20/21). A violation below 1978 would likely require reevaluation of the upside projections.

 

Downside Overview: The intermediate downside price projection, based on the current technical picture, over the next 1-2 months is 1893-1805 (adjusted 1/13/21). A close above 2177 would likely require reevaluation of the downside projections.

 

 

RUT (IWM) Longer-Term Outlook (3-6 Months)

Longer-Term Upside Price Projection:                      2200-2273 (218.75-226)

Longer-Term Downside Price Projection:                 1906-1820 (189.75-181)

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Several Weeks to Several Months

 

*RUT@2160.62
as of 1/20/20
@Market Close
(Longer-Term)
3+months
(Intermediate-Term)
3-8 weeks
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION


Upside Overview:
The RUT reached the price projections previously indicated. An advance in the long-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the RUT to 2200-2273 (indicated 1/13/21). A violation of 1927 would require reevaluation of the upside levels.

Downside Overview: The downside price projection for the the next 3-6 months is 1906-1820 (adjusted 12/23/20). A close above 2203 would likely require reevaluation of the downside projections.

 



TECHNICAL EVIDENCE SUMMARY

Momentum Tracker & Charts


1 Month Daily Area Chart “Comparison” with the SLIM Ribbon Momentum Indicator


2hr Intraday Area Chart “Comparison” with SLIM Ribbon Momentum Indicator & MCI

 

askSlim Cycle Analysis Tracker


NOTE: The analysis presented in the Stock Index Report (SIR) is purely technical in nature. The foundational components of our technical work includes proprietary trend, momentum and cycle studies. Our trend and momentum indicators are formulaic and nearly 100% objective and are designed to provide bullish, bearish or neutral “readings” on any security or index at multiple timeframes. Our cycle work is an art as much as it is a science and it is the most forward looking of the three primary technical components. The highest probability directional outlooks are when we have “alignment” in our primary technical conditions (trend, momentum and cycle) and at multiple timeframes.

Our use of “Near-Term” refers to the use of 2hr intraday charts and other trend analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last 5-7 trading days. Our use of “Short-Term” refers to the use of primarily daily charts and other trend analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last few to several weeks. Our use of “Intermediate-Term” refers to the use of primarily weekly charts and other trend analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last several weeks to several months.

HELPFUL TIPS:

  • The SIR is designed to provide an analytical framework that supports the development of a trading plan for the three indexes and a proxy for the “health” of overall market direction. We use a proprietary blend of trend and momentum indicators along with Slim’s cycle analysis with the purpose of forecasting potential price objectives both on the upside and downside at multiple timeframes.
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  • Click on each chart and table image for the full-size render.
  • New to Slim’s Charts? Click the following link to learn more. Slim’s Chart Training
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Trend Momentum Condition Tracker Overview

  • Using a proprietary blend of chart indicators our Trend Momentum Tracker is designed to provide insight into the condition of trend momentum at various time frames. NOTE: changes in the momentum conditions reflected in the tracker are not buy/sell signals or recommendations. Click on the following link to learn more about Slim’s Trend Momentum Tracking Tools
  • Chart Color/Icon Key
    • Green/Bull  suggests current price action is reflecting a positive momentum condition.
    • Red/Bear  suggests current price action is reflecting a negative momentum condition.
    • Purple Sideways Arrows suggest current price action is reflecting a neutral momentum condition.
  • askSlim Market Condition Indicator (MCI)
    • The askSlim MCI is proprietary indicator that functions as an oscillator combining information from multiple timeframes. The MCI provides us with an internal market condition reading and is most useful to supporting traders with shorter term trading styles and holding periods .
    • We will use the MCI in our tracker below to primarily compare the short term relative strength of the Stock Indexes and to support our feel for the dominant conditions whether positive or negative of the Stock Indexes.
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