SPX – (SPY)
Slim's Annotated SPX Charts

askSlim Annotated – SPX WEEKLY CHART

askSlim Annotated –SPX DAILY CHART

SPX (SPY) Technical Summary

SPX Close Price: 2784.70
SPY Close Price: 278.41
Updated as of: 2/20/19 Market Close

 

SPX TECHNICAL SUMMARY: The SPX rally continues for an eighth week as it sets another new short-term high today (2/20/19) at 2789.88 and begins to challenge major resistance zones around 2800 including nearing the major 78.6% fib level around 2015. As overbought as the SPX continues to become until the Trend and Momentum work that guides our short-term analysis begins to deliver negative market messages there is likely continued opportunity for new short to intermediate-term highs. It is important to note that our cycle work is suggesting peaking and declining phases are due soon, likely in the next 1-4 weeks, which suggest a minimum correction of 80-100 points in the SPX from the intermediate high that is established. On the downside a short-term pullback into a support zone from 2755-2723 is an area we are watching and on a more aggressive move lower 2670-2620. From an intermediate and longer-term perspective – meaning the next couple to several months our cycle work continues to suggest, at this point, that there is significant downside risk and the strong possibility of retesting and or breaking the December 2018 low around 2350. This longer-term more bearish analysis would need to be revisited with a close above 2820 and our longer-term momentum indicator reversing back to positive. 

SPX (SPY) Short-Term Outlook (1-3 Weeks)

Short-Term Upside Price Projection:                2800-2815 (279.50-281)

Short-Term Downside Price Projection:           2735-2710 (273-270.50)

 

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few Days to Few Weeks

*SPX
as of 2/20/19 close
(Short-Term)
Few Weeks
(Near-Term)
Few  Days – Several Days
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION


Upside Overview:
The continued rally reached the upside price projections indicated in the last report. An advance in the short-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the SPX to 2800-2815.

 

Downside Overview: The current technicals suggest, in the short-term, the SPX tests 2735-2710. If a breakdown in the technicals occurs a more aggressive downside price projection is 2670-2620.

 

NOTES: At this point closing below 2675 for the SPX would likely neutralize the short-term positive trend condition and closing below 2612 would shift the cycle configuration to negative.

SPX (SPY) Intermediate-Term Outlook (1-2 Months)


Intermediate-Term Upside Price Projection:                      2800-2825 (279.50-282)
Intermediate-Term Downside Price Projection:                 2690-2640 (268.50-263.50)

 

  *Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few to Several Weeks

*SPX
as of 2/20/19 close
(Intermediate-Term)
several weeks
(Short-Term)
few weeks
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION


Upside Overview:
The continued rally reached the lower end of the upside price projections indicated in the last report. An advance in the intermediate-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the SPX to 2800-2825.

 

Downside Overview: The downside price projection over the next 1-2 months is 2690- 2640. A more aggressive decline would likely test 2600-2585.

 

NOTES: The SPX intermediate-term bearish technical condition was neutralized on 2/4/19 with the close above 2715 which opened the door to further higher highs – including a possible push into the 2775-2815 range. To shift the weekly cycle configuration back to positive a close back above 2940.91 would be required. At this point closing below 2515 for the SPX would likely indicate the bearish intermediate-trend has resumed.

SPX (SPY) Longer-Term Outlook (3-6 Months)

Longer-Term Upside Price Projection:                     2815-2835 (281-283)
Longer-Term Downside Price Projection:                2520-2445 (251.50-244)

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Several Weeks to Several Months

*SPX
as of 2/20/19 close
(Longer-Term)
several months
(Intermediate-Term)
several weeks
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION

Upside Overview:  The continued rally reached the lower end of the upside price projections indicated in the last report. An advance in the longer-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the SPX to 2815-2835. A more aggressive upside price projection if the positive short-term trend and intermediate momentum continue would likely see the SPX challenge 2850-2865.

 

Downside Overview: The downside price projection over the next 3-6 months is 2520-2445. A more aggressive downside projection for the longer term continues to be a test of the December 2018 lows near 2350. This longer-term more bearish analysis would need to be revisited with a close above 2820 and our longer-term momentum indicator reversing back to positive. 

 

NOTES: Our longer-term monthly momentum indicator turned negative, the week of 12/10/18) for the first time since December of 2015. Currently a close back above 2820 would likely needed to reclaim the positive trend condition. Currently a close below 2320 would warn that the longer-term trend has turned negative.


NDX – (QQQ)
Slim's Annotated NDX Charts

askSlim Annotated – NDX WEEKLY CHART

askSlim Annotated  –NDX DAILY CHART

NDX (QQQ) Technical Summary


NDX Close Price: 7062.33
QQQ Close Price: 172.25

Updated as of: 2/20/19 Market Close

 

NDX OVERALL TECHNICAL SUMMARY: The rally in the NDX has continued for an eighth week as it sets another new short-term high today (2/20/19) at 7096 and begins to near major cycle peak resistance zones from 7115-7215 then at 7315 which is also a major 78.6 Fib retracement level. As overbought as the market continues to become until the Trend and Momentum work that guides our short-term analysis begins to deliver negative market messages there is likely continued opportunity for new short to intermediate-term highs. It is important to note that our cycle work is suggesting peaking and declining phases are due soon, likely in the next 1-4 weeks, which suggest a minimum correction of 350-450 points in the NDX from the intermediate high that is established. On the downside a short-term pullback into a support zone from 6920-6850 is an area we are watching and on a more aggressive move lower 66506600. From an intermediate and longer-term perspective – meaning the next couple to several months our cycle work continues to suggest, at this point, that there is significant downside risk and the strong possibility of retesting and or breaking the December 2018 low around 5895. This longer-term more bearish analysis would need to be revisited with a close above 7315 and our longer-term momentum indicator reversing back to positive. 

 

NDX (QQQ) Short-Term Outlook (1-3 Weeks)

Short-Term Upside Price Projection:                7115-7135 (173.50-174)

Short-Term Downside Price Projection:           6920-6850 (168.75-167)

 

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few Days to Few Weeks

*NDX
as of 2/20/19 close
(Short-Term)
Few Weeks
(Near-Term)
Few  Days – Several Days
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION


Upside Overview: The continued rally reached the lower range of the upside price projections indicated in the last report. An advance in the short-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the NDX to 7115-7135.

 

Downside Overview: The current technicals suggest, in the short-term, the NDX tests 6920-6850. If a breakdown in the technicals occurs a more aggressive downside price projection suggests a test of 6650. 

 

NOTES: At this point closing below 6750 for the NDX would likely neutralize the short-term positive trend condition and closing below 6585 would shift the cycle configuration to negative.

NDX (QQQ) Intermediate-Term Outlook (1-2 Months)


NDX (QQQ) INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK (1-2 MONTHS)

Intermediate-Term Upside Price Projection:                     7125-7215 (173.75-175.75)
Intermediate-Term Downside Price Projection:                6650-6600 (162-160.75)

 

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few to Several Weeks

NDX
as of 2/20/19 close
(Intermediate-Term)
several weeks
(Short-Term)
few weeks
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION


Upside Overview:
 The continued rally reached the lower range of the upside price projections indicated in the last two reports. An advance in the intermediate-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the NDX to 7125-7215.

 

Downside Overview: Based on the current technical evidence, the downside price projection over the next 1-2 months is 6650-6600

 

NOTES: The NDX intermediate-term bearish technical condition was neutralized on 2/5/19 with the close above 7000 which opened the door to pushing further into the intermediate resistance zone which may include a test of 7300. To shift the weekly cycle configuration back to positive a close back above 7700.56 would be required. At this point closing below 6330 for the NDX would likely indicate the bearish intermediate-trend has resumed.

NDX (QQQ) Longer-Term Outlook (3-6 Months)

NDX (QQQ) LONGER-TERM OUTLOOK (3-6 MONTHS)

Longer-Term Upside Price Projection:                     7150-7300 (174.25-178)
Longer-Term Downside Price Projection:                6500-6300 (158.50-153.25)

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Several Weeks to Several Months

NDX
as of 2/20/19 close
(Longer-Term)
several months
(Intermediate-Term)
several weeks
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION

 

Upside Overview: The upside price projection for the longer-term is 7150-7300 (indicated 2/6/13) .

 

Downside Overview: The downside price projection has been raised due to the extended rally and multiple closes over the major 61.8% retracement level. The new downside price projection for the the next 3-6 months is 6500-6300. A more aggressive downside price projection if intermediate trend and momentum to shift back to negative would be 6200-5900. We will need to be revisit this more aggressive downside price projection if the NDX closes above 7315 and our longer-term momentum indicator reverses back to positive. 

 

NOTES: As of 12/19/18 our longer-term monthly momentum indicator turned negative for the first time since May of 2016. Currently a close back above 7320 would be needed to likely reclaim the positive trend condition. 


RUT – (IWM)
Slim's Annotated RUT Charts


askSlim Annotated – RUT WEEKLY CHART

askSlim Annotated  – RUT DAILY CHART

RUT (IWM) Technical Summary

RUT Close Price: 1581.66
IWM Close Price: 157.39

Updated as of: 2/20/19 Market Close

 

RUT TECHNICAL SUMMARY: The rally in the RUT has continued for an eighth week as it sets another new short-term high today (2/20/19) at 1583.34. As overbought as the RUT continues to become until the Trend and Momentum work that guides our short-term analysis begins to deliver negative market messages there is likely continued opportunity for new short to intermediate-term highs. The next major resistance zone runs from 1615-1640. It is important to note that our cycle work is suggesting peaking and declining phases are due soon, likely in the next 1-4 weeks, which suggest a minimum correction of 80-125 points in the RUT from the intermediate high that is established. On the downside a short-term pullback into a support zone from 1550-1530 is an area we are watching and on a more aggressive move lower 1510-1495. From an intermediate and longer-term perspective – meaning the next couple to several months our cycle work continues to suggest, at this point, that there is significant downside risk and the strong possibility of retesting and or breaking the December 2018 low around 1265. This longer-term more bearish analysis would need to be revisited with a close above 1640 and our longer-term momentum indicator reversing back to positive. 

 

RUT (IWM) Short-Term Outlook (1-3 Weeks)

Short-Term Upside Price Projection:                1600-1615 (159-161)
Short-Term Downside Price Projection:           1550-1530 (154-152)

 

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few Days to Few Weeks

*RUT
as of 2/20/19 close
(Short-Term)
Few Weeks
(Near-Term)
Few  Days – Several Days
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION

 

Upside Overview: The continued rally exceeded the upside price projections indicated in the last report. An advance in the short-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the RUT to 1600-1615.

 

Downside Overview:  The current technicals suggest, in the short-term, the RUT tests 1550-1530. If a breakdown in the technicals occurs a more aggressive downside price projection suggests a test of 1510-1495. 

 

NOTES: At this point closing below 1490 for the RUT would likely neutralize the short-term positive trend condition and closing below 1445 would shift the daily chart cycle configuration to negative.

 

 

RUT (IWM) Intermediate-Term Outlook (1-2 Months)

Intermediate-Term Upside Price Projection:                     1610-1625 (160 – 161.75)
Intermediate-Term Downside Price Projection:                1480-1440 (147.50-143)

 

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few to Several Weeks

 

RUT
as of 2/20/19 close
(Intermediate-Term)
several weeks
(Short-Term)
few weeks
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION

 

Upside Overview: The continued rally reached the price projections indicated in the previous report. An advance in the intermediate-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the RUT to 1610-1625.

 

Downside Overview: The downside price projection, based on the current technical picture, over the next 1-2 months is 1480-1440

 

NOTES: To shift the weekly cycle configuration back to positive a close back above 1742.09 would be required. At this point closing below 1380 for the RUT would likely indicate the bearish intermediate-trend has resumed.

 

RUT (IWM) Longer-Term Outlook (3-6 Months)

Longer-Term Upside Price Projection:                     1610-1640 (160-163.25)

Longer-Term Downside Price Projection:                1450-1400 (144.50-139.25)

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Several Weeks to Several Months

 

*RUT
as of 2/13/19 close
(Longer-Term)
several months
(Intermediate-Term)
several weeks
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION


Upside Overview:
Based on the current technical evidence, the upside price projection for the longer-term is 1560-1595. A more aggressive upside price projection if the positive short-term trend and intermediate momentum continues would be 1620-1640.

 

Downside Overview: The downside price projection has been raised due to the extended rally and multiple closes over the major 61.8% retracement level. The new downside price projection for the the next 3-6 months is 1450-1400. A more aggressive downside price projection if intermediate trend and momentum to shift back to negative would be 1335-1270. We will need to be revisit this more aggressive downside price projection if the RUT closes above 1640 and our longer-term momentum indicator reverses back to positive. 

 

 

NOTES: Our longer-term momentum reading, as of 11/21/18, shifted to negative. This longer-term momentum reading had been positive since July of 2016. A close above 1640 would likely reclaim the positive longer term trend condition. A close below 1200 would warn that the longer-term trend has turned negative.



TECHNICAL EVIDENCE SUMMARY

Momentum Tracker & Charts



1 Month Daily Area Chart “Comparison” with the SLIM Ribbon Momentum Indicator

 


2hr Intraday Area Chart “Comparison” with SLIM Ribbon Momentum Indicator & MCI 

askSlim Cycle Analysis Tracker

Support/Resistance Alert Zones

SPX – (SPY) –  Support/Resistance “Alert” Zones 

SPX – (SPY)
RESISTANCE ZONES

SUPPORT ZONES
MINOR none at this time 2755-2723 (275-271.50)
2705-2650 (270-264.25),

INTERMEDIATE 2790-2815 (278.25-281),
2620- 2570 (261.50-256.25)
2515-2440 (251-243.25)
MAJOR 2840-2940.91*(283.25-294),
2990- 3130** (297.50-312.50)
3290**(328-329)
2275-2225 (226.50-222.50),
2100-2015 (209-201.50),
1875-1760 (186.50- 176)


NDX – (QQQ) – Support/Resistance “Alert” Zones 

NDX – (QQQ)
RESISTANCE ZONES

SUPPORT ZONES

MINOR
none at this time 7015-6980 (171-169.75),
6900-6835 (168.25-166.25)
6780-6635 (165.25-161.50)

INTERMEDIATE
7080-7215 (172.25-176),
7300-7315 (177.50-178.40),
6500-6350 (158.50-154.50)
6150-6130 (150-149)
MAJOR 7400-7700.56* (180-188)
7740-7780** (188-190)
7860**-8030** (191-196)
5925-5825 (144.75-141.50),
5475-5285 (133.50-128.25),
5150-5045 (125.75-122.50)

 



RUT – (IWM) – Support/Resistance “Alert” Zones

RUT – (IWM)
RESISTANCE ZONES

SUPPORT ZONES
MINOR none at this time 1560-1550 (155.25-154)
1538-1510 (153-150)
1495-1460 (148.75-145)
INTERMEDIATE 1585-1600 (157.25-159.25)
1425-1383 (141.75-137.25)
1335 (133-132.25)
MAJOR 1625-1742.09* (161.50-173.40),
1750**-1790**(173.75-178),
1850-1900** (183.75-189)
1250-1165 (124.50-115.50),
1130-1030 (112.50-102.25),
945-865 (94.25-86)

 


 

HELPFUL TIPS:

  • The SIR is designed to provide an analytical framework that supports the development of a trading plan for the three indexes and a proxy for the “health” of overall market direction. We use a proprietary blend of trend and momentum indicators along with Slim’s cycle analysis with the purpose of forecasting potential price objectives both on the upside and downside at multiple timeframes.
  • Click on the “down” arrow in front of each section to expand the content and click on the “up” arrow to collapse the content.
  • Click on each chart and table image for the full-size render.
  • New to Slim’s Charts? Click the following link to learn more. Slim’s Chart Training
  • Click on the following link to learn more about Slim’s Trend Momentum Tracking Tool

Stock Index - Cycle & Trend Momentum Report (S.I.R.) Overview

Intended Production Frequency: A new complete post typically each Thursday morning. The askSlim Trend Momentum Condition Tracker along with Key Support/Resistance Levels are likely to be updated more often – either before or after the market closes when meaningful price changes occur.

The following is our analysis of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 stock market indexes. The analysis and supporting data is designed to complement swing traders, options traders with holding times lasting several days to several weeks along with position traders with holding times lasting a few months to several months.

Here’s an overview of what’s included below:

Three Charts per Stock Index 

  • Weekly Chart Annotated with Slim’s Cycle Analysis, Timing and Projections
  • Daily Chart with Annotated with Slim’s Cycle Analysis, Timing, Projections
  • Daily Chart overlayed with the Slim Ribbon Trend Momentum indicator reflected on an Area Chart

Three Data “Insight” Tables

  • Multiple Timeframe Cycle Analysis Recap
  • askSlim Trend Momentum Condition Tracker
  • Support & Resistance Alert Zones

Trend Momentum Condition Tracker Overview

  • Using a proprietary blend of chart indicators our Trend Momentum Tracker is designed to provide insight into the condition of trend momentum at various time frames. NOTE: changes in the momentum conditions reflected in the tracker are not buy/sell signals or recommendations. Click on the following link to learn more about Slim’s Trend Momentum Tracking Tools
  • Chart Color/Icon Key
    • Green/Bull  suggests current price action is reflecting a positive momentum condition.
    • Red/Bear  suggests current price action is reflecting a negative momentum condition.
    • Purple Sideways Arrows suggest current price action is reflecting a neutral momentum condition.
  • askSlim Market Condition Indicator (MCI)
    • The askSlim MCI is proprietary indicator that functions as an oscillator combining information from multiple timeframes. The MCI provides us with an internal market condition reading and is most useful to supporting traders with shorter term trading styles and holding periods .
    • We will use the MCI in our tracker below to primarily compare the short term relative strength of the Stock Indexes and to support our feel for the dominant conditions whether positive or negative of the Stock Indexes.
        • The askSlim MCI is a copyrighted study. It is illegal to share it without permission.


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