Hello, askSlim members!

Below is a full update to the Stock Index Report (SIR) as of 2/26/20. Comments and questions can be posted below. Enjoy!

SPX – (SPY)
Slim's Annotated SPX Charts

askSlim Annotated – SPX WEEKLY CHART

askSlim Annotated –SPX DAILY CHART

SPX (SPY) Technical Summary

SPX Price: 3116.39
SPY Price: 311.50
Analysis as of: 2/26/20  

 

SPX TECHNICAL SUMMARY: 

The violation and close below 3215 has shifted the SPX daily cycle configuration to negative along with the short-term and intermediate-term momentum conditions. This shift has now “flipped the script” and suggests rallies will likely struggle and fail in key resistance areas and risks increase that the SPX prints lower lows and lower highs until the bulls regain control. When we are in these projected higher periods of risk, based on cycle timing or change in trend, it doesn’t mean markets can’t rally, push above resistance or make new highs. It means that our objective technical methodology and chart analysis studies are simply suggesting a higher probability of one directional scenario existing over another – in this case the bias in the short and intermediate time-frame has now shifted more bearish.

 

The next daily cycle low is projected between 2/27-3/4/20. A bounce or potential sharp rally that fails and a retest or break of lows is currently the higher probability scenario once the low is established. For the bulls to regain control of the short-term pattern, currently a close above 3284 and a break above of 3337 would likely be needed. It is worth noting that the SPX longer-term momentum and trend conditions are currently still positive. This suggests that as we test key intermediate and longer-term support levels (which we are starting to near), especially on the first tests, bounces from these levels are likely. 

We continue to keep a close eye on the price action’s impact on the technical conditions at multiple time frames.

 

SPX (SPY) Short-Term Outlook (1-3 Weeks)

Short-Term Upside Price Projection:                 3218-3251 (321.25-324.50)

Short-Term Downside Price Projection:            3103-3072 (309.75-306.75)

 

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few Days to Few Weeks

*SPX
as of 2/26/20
(Short-Term)
Few Weeks
(Near-Term)
Few  Days – Several Days
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION


Upside Overview:
  An advance in the short-term, based on the current technical conditions, is likely to bring the SPX to 3218-3251 (adjusted 2/26/20).

 

Downside Overview: The SPX reached the price projections indicated in the previous several reports.The current technicals suggest, in the short-term, the SPX tests 3103-3072. 

SPX (SPY) Intermediate-Term Outlook (1-2 Months)


Intermediate-Term Upside Price Projection:                      3186-3270 (318-326.50)
Intermediate-Term Downside Price Projection:                 3077-3030 (307-302.50)

 

  *Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few to Several Weeks

*SPX
as of 2/26/20
(Intermediate-Term)
several weeks
(Short-Term)
few weeks
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION


Upside Overview:
An advance in the intermediate-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the SPX to 3186-3270 (adjusted 2/26/20).

 

Downside Overview: The SPX reached the price projections indicated in the 12/19/19 report. The downside projection, based on the current technical conditions, over the next 1-2 months is 3077-3030

 

SPX (SPY) Longer-Term Outlook (3-6 Months)

Longer-Term Upside Price Projection:                     3263-3321 (325.75-331.50)
Longer-Term Downside Price Projection:                3045-2983 (304-297.75)

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Several Weeks to Several Months

*SPX
as of 2/26/20 close
(Longer-Term)
several months
(Intermediate-Term)
several weeks
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION

Upside Overview: An advance in the longer-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the SPX to 3263-3321 (adjusted 2-26-20).

Downside Overview: The SPX reached the price projections indicated in the 2/12/20 report.The current technicals suggest a downside price projection over the next 3-6 months of 3045-2983 (indicated 2/26/20)

 


NDX – (QQQ)
Slim's Annotated NDX Charts

askSlim Annotated – NDX WEEKLY CHART

askSlim Annotated –NDX DAILY CHART

NDX (QQQ) Technical Summary


NDX Price: 8873.57
QQQ Price: 216.48

Analysis as of: 2/26/20 

 

NDX OVERALL TECHNICAL SUMMARY:

 

Upside Overview:

  • For the bulls to regain control of the short-term pattern, currently a close above 9380 and a break above of 9536 would likely be needed.
  • It is worth noting that the NDX longer-term momentum and trend conditions are currently still positive. This suggests that as we test key intermediate and longer-term support levels (which we are starting to near), especially on the first tests, bounces from these levels are likely. 
  • The NDX has a minor resistance zone from 9050-9112
  • The NDX has a key short-term resistance zone from 9271-9380

Downside Overview:

  • The NDX suffered significant technical damage with the close below Cycle low support at 8961.
  • The NDX has a key intermediate and initial longer-term support areas from 8681-8565, then near 8472
  • The next daily cycle low is projected due between 2/27-3/4.

NDX (QQQ) Short-Term Outlook (1-3 Weeks)

Short-Term Upside Price Projection:                9120-9267 (222.15-225.75)

Short-Term Downside Price Projection:           8765-8660 (213.50-211)

 

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few Days to Few Weeks

*NDX
as of 2/26/20 
(Short-Term)
Few Weeks
(Near-Term)
Few  Days – Several Days
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION


Upside Overview:  An advance in the short-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the NDX to 9120-9267 (indicated 2-26-20). A more aggressive advance would suggest a challenge of 9360.

 

Downside Overview: The NDX reached the price projections indicated in the previous several reports.The current technicals suggest, in the short-term, the NDX tests 8765-8660 (indicated 2-26-20)

 

NDX (QQQ) Intermediate-Term Outlook (1-2 Months)


NDX (QQQ) INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK (1-2 MONTHS)

Intermediate-Term Upside Price Projection:                     9325-9505 (227.15-231.65)
Intermediate-Term Downside Price Projection:                8707-8660  (212-211)

 

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few to Several Weeks

NDX
as of 2/26/20
(Intermediate-Term)
several weeks
(Short-Term)
few weeks
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION


Upside Overview:
An advance in the intermediate-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the NDX to 9325-9505 (adjusted 2/26/20).

 

Downside Overview: The NDX reached the price projections indicated in the 1/22/20 report. The intermediate downside price projection over the next 1-2 months is 8707-8660 (indicated 2/26/20).

NDX (QQQ) Longer-Term Outlook (3-6 Months)

NDX (QQQ) LONGER-TERM OUTLOOK (3-6 MONTHS)

Longer-Term Upside Price Projection:                     9850-9915 (240-241.75)
Longer-Term Downside Price Projection:                8550-8425 (208.25-205.25)

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Several Weeks to Several Months

NDX
as of 2/26/20
(Longer-Term)
several months
(Intermediate-Term)
several weeks
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION

 

Upside Overview: The longer-term price projection for the NDX based on the current technicals is 9850-9915. A more aggressive upside projection suggests a challenge of 10,065. A close below 8390 would require us to reevaluate the longer-term upside projections. 

 

Downside Overview: The NDX reached the price projections indicated in the 2/12/20 report.The current technicals suggest a downside price projection over the next 3-6 months of 8550-8425 (indicated 2/26/20)

.


RUT – (IWM)
Slim's Annotated RUT Charts


askSlim Annotated – RUT WEEKLY CHART

askSlim Annotated –RUT DAILY CHART

RUT (IWM) Technical Summary

RUT Price: 1552.76
IWM Price: 154.50

Analysis as of: 2/26/20  

 

RUT TECHNICAL SUMMARY: 

 

Upside Overview:

  • For the bulls to regain control of the short-term pattern, currently a close above 1653 and a break above of 1685 would likely be needed.
  • It is worth noting that the RUT longer-term momentum and trend conditions are currently still positive. This suggests that as we test key intermediate and longer-term support levels (which we are starting to near), especially on the first tests, bounces from these levels are likely. 
  • The RUT has a minor resistance zone from 1594-1608
  • The NDX has a key short-term resistance zone from 1618-1643

Downside Overview:

  • The RUT suffered significant technical damage with the close below Cycle low support at 1610.
  • The RUT  has a key intermediate and initial longer-term support areas from 1544-1501, then from 1490-1477
  • The next daily cycle low is projected due between 2/23-3/2/20.

RUT (IWM) Short-Term Outlook (1-3 Weeks)

Short-Term Upside Price Projection:                1604-1625 (159.50-161.75)
Short-Term Downside Price Projection:           1545-1535 (153.65-152.75)

 

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few Days to Few Weeks

*RUT
as of 2/26/20 
(Short-Term)
Few Weeks
(Near-Term)
Few  Days – Several Days
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION

Upside Overview: An advance in the short-term, based on the current technical conditions, is likely to bring the RUT to 1604-1625  (indicated 2/26/20).

 

Downside Overview:  The RUT reached the price projections indicated in the previous report.The current technicals suggest, in the short-term, the RUT tests 1545-1535 (indicated 2/26/20).

RUT (IWM) Intermediate-Term Outlook (1-2 Months)

Intermediate-Term Upside Price Projection:                     1625-1642 (161.65-163.25)
Intermediate-Term Downside Price Projection:                1535-1509 (152.65-150)

 

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Few to Several Weeks

 

RUT
as of 2/26/20
(Intermediate-Term)
several weeks
(Short-Term)
few weeks
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION

 

Upside Overview: An advance in the intermediate-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the RUT to 1625-1642

 

Downside Overview: The RUT reached the price projections indicated in the 12/11/19 report. The intermediate downside price projection, based on the current technical picture, over the next 1-2 months is 1535-1509 (indicated 2/26/20).

 

 

RUT (IWM) Longer-Term Outlook (3-6 Months)

Longer-Term Upside Price Projection:                     1635-1670 (162.75-166)

Longer-Term Downside Price Projection:                1509-1490 (150-148)

*Trend & Momentum Conditions Likely To Impact the Next Several Weeks to Several Months

 

*RUT
as of 2/26/20
(Longer-Term)
several months
(Intermediate-Term)
several weeks
TREND
CONDITION
MOMENTUM
CONDITION


Upside Overview:
An advance in the long-term, based on the current technical picture, is likely to bring the RUT to 1635-1670 (adjusted 2/26/20). A close above 1655 would likely be needed to raise the upside projections.

Downside Overview: The RUT reached the price projections indicated in the 11/20/19 report. The downside price projection for the the next 3-6 months is 1509-1490 (indicated 2/26/20). A more aggressive decline could see the RUT test 1440.

 



TECHNICAL EVIDENCE SUMMARY

Momentum Tracker & Charts


1 Month Daily Area Chart “Comparison” with the SLIM Ribbon Momentum Indicator


2hr Intraday Area Chart “Comparison” with SLIM Ribbon Momentum Indicator & MCI 

askSlim Cycle Analysis Tracker

Support/Resistance Alert Zones

SPX –  Support/Resistance “Alert” Zones 

SPX – (SPY)
RESISTANCE ZONES

SUPPORT ZONES
MINOR & SHORT-TERM 3205-3230,
3257-3288
none at this time
INTERMEDIATE none at this time 3108-3061,
3040
MAJOR & LONG-TERM *3393.52
**3452-3498**
**3520-3556**
3062,
3040-2983,
2945-2907
2870

*ALL-TIME HIGH
**FIB LEVEL



NDX  – Support/Resistance “Alert” Zones 

NDX 
RESISTANCE ZONES

SUPPORT ZONES
MINOR & SHORT-TERM
9050-9112,
9271-9380
none at this time
INTERMEDIATE none at this time 8681-8565,
8473-8425,
8368-8320
MAJOR & LONG-TERM *9736-9788**
10,024**-10,105**
8665-8472,
8297-8270,
8153-8055

*ALL-TIME HIGH
**FIB LEVEL



RUT  – Support/Resistance “Alert” Zones

 

RUT 
RESISTANCE ZONES

SUPPORT ZONES
MINOR & SHORT-TERM 1594-1608,
1618-1643
none at this time
INTERMEDIATE none at this time 1544-1509,
1501-1477
MAJOR & LONG-TERM 1723
1742.09* 

1750**-1790**
1850-1900** 
1544-1490,
1439-1402

 

*ALL-TIME HIGH
**FIB LEVEL


NOTE: The analysis presented in the Stock Index Report (SIR) is purely technical in nature. The foundational components of our technical work includes proprietary trend, momentum and cycle studies. Our trend and momentum indicators are formulaic and nearly 100% objective and are designed to provide bullish, bearish or neutral “readings” on any security or index at multiple timeframes. Our cycle work is an art as much as it is a science and it is the most forward looking of the three primary technical components. The highest probability directional outlooks are when we have “alignment” in our primary technical conditions (trend, momentum and cycle) and at multiple timeframes.

Our use of “Near-Term” refers to the use of 2hr intraday charts and other trend analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last 5-7 trading days. Our use of “Short-Term” refers to the use of primarily daily charts and other trend analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last few to several weeks. Our use of “Intermediate-Term” refers to the use of primarily weekly charts and other trend analysis that is assimilated from market data over the last several weeks to several months.

HELPFUL TIPS:

  • The SIR is designed to provide an analytical framework that supports the development of a trading plan for the three indexes and a proxy for the “health” of overall market direction. We use a proprietary blend of trend and momentum indicators along with Slim’s cycle analysis with the purpose of forecasting potential price objectives both on the upside and downside at multiple timeframes.
  • Click on the “down” arrow in front of each section to expand the content and click on the “up” arrow to collapse the content.
  • Click on each chart and table image for the full-size render.
  • New to Slim’s Charts? Click the following link to learn more. Slim’s Chart Training
  • Click on the following link to learn more about Slim’s Trend Momentum Tracking Tool

Trend Momentum Condition Tracker Overview

  • Using a proprietary blend of chart indicators our Trend Momentum Tracker is designed to provide insight into the condition of trend momentum at various time frames. NOTE: changes in the momentum conditions reflected in the tracker are not buy/sell signals or recommendations. Click on the following link to learn more about Slim’s Trend Momentum Tracking Tools
  • Chart Color/Icon Key
    • Green/Bull  suggests current price action is reflecting a positive momentum condition.
    • Red/Bear  suggests current price action is reflecting a negative momentum condition.
    • Purple Sideways Arrows suggest current price action is reflecting a neutral momentum condition.
  • askSlim Market Condition Indicator (MCI)
    • The askSlim MCI is proprietary indicator that functions as an oscillator combining information from multiple timeframes. The MCI provides us with an internal market condition reading and is most useful to supporting traders with shorter term trading styles and holding periods .
    • We will use the MCI in our tracker below to primarily compare the short term relative strength of the Stock Indexes and to support our feel for the dominant conditions whether positive or negative of the Stock Indexes.
        • The askSlim MCI is a copyrighted study. It is illegal to share it without permission.


DISCLAIMERS

Askslim.com, Inc. owns and operates the website known as: www.askslim.com. All of the information on www.askslim.com is solely for entertainment, informational and educational purposes only and is not investment or trading advice. None of the information on the Website or in emails is guaranteed to be accurate, complete, useful or timely.

Please go askslim.com for the full disclaimer, terms and conditions and privacy policy