Summary:

  • Tapestry (TPR) tanked 22% on Thursday, after the company posted revenue that missed Wall Street expectations.
  • Based on its market cycles, we believe TPR, which owns luxury brands such as Coach and Kate Spade, has further downside risk.

The company reported earnings per share of $0.61 and total revenue of $1.51 billion, compared to analyst estimates of $0.61 and $1.53 billion. With regard to guidance, management now expects a decline in both earnings and revenue in the coming quarter.

CEO Victor Luis explained that, “Kate Spade did not meet our expectations and more time is required to drive a positive inflection. We acknowledge that there are opportunities to improve performance and we are addressing those areas with a sense of urgency.”

Our approach to stock analysis uses market cycles to project price action. Our view is that TPR is still in the declining phase of its current cycle with more time to go. The stock has been in a long downtrend and patterns suggest declines into the fall, with no visible support until $12.

For more from Slim, or to learn about cycle analysis, check out the askSlim Market Week show every Friday on our YouTube channel