US Steel (X) traded 5% higher on Tuesday morning, after Citigroup upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral. Citi made two points. The first is that steel prices have recently fallen 25%, and the second is their forecast for higher steel prices. As such, Citi increased their price target on X from $43 to $46.

Our analysis of market cycles on US Steel’s weekly chart below indicates that Citi’s call may be off the mark…at least until next month. X is midway through its current market cycle, which is due to conclude in May 2018. Until then, we see additional downside price action, with a target around $31. Assuming the patterns continue to follow what has been very regular cycle rhythms, at that time, buyers can consider picking up some shares.

US Steel (X) Stock Chart with Weekly Bars

For an introduction to cycle analysis, check out our Stock Market Cycles video, or watch the askSlim Market Week show every Friday on our YouTube channel.

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